USD/CHF Forecast: Levels for Dollar and Franc
This analysis is from 21 September 2026. Prices have moved since, so the levels below may no longer apply until the next update.
USD/CHF forecast in 30 seconds
Where it stands
0.8211 francs on 21 September 2026. The yearly high at 0.8264 was set on the day of the Fed decision.
Short term
Above all four daily moving averages; it has, however, bounced off a rising trend line.
Medium term
The 20- and 50-week lines are taken; the 100-week line at 0.8211 sits in the current test area.
Key resistance
0.8300, the 2015 low, sits above everything.
On this page
USD/CHF forecast, short term
Click to enlargeLooking back: the low of the year at 0.7601 dates from January 2026. From there a recovery ran for eight months. The Fed decision of 16 September brought the push that cracked the old summer high. The price jumped to 0.8264 and closed that day at 0.8253.
Outlook: the market trades above all four moving averages. The 20 day line sits at 0.8129, the 50 day line at 0.8109, the 100 day line at 0.8029 and the 200 day line at 0.7940. All four run below the price and in that order. That is an intact uptrend.
The catch sits above. The price has reached a rising trend line that connects the highs since January 2026, and it bounced off at first. The reaction was clear enough to take seriously. To the upside, 0.8300 stays the level where everything is decided. To the downside the 20 day line at 0.8129 is the first test, below that the cluster of the 50 and 100 day lines between 0.8109 and 0.8029.
Resistance
- 0.8300
Price at analysis0.8211
Support
- 0.8129
- 0.8109
- 0.8029
- 0.7940
USD/CHF forecast, medium term
Click to enlargeLooking back: since February 2026 the weekly chart shows a chain of higher lows. That pattern differs from the years before, when every recovery ended lower than the one before it.
Outlook: two of the four averages are taken. The 20 week average sits at 0.8049 and the 50 week average at 0.7955, both below the price. The 100 week line sits at 0.8211. In the weekly chart, which was recorded 35 minutes later than the other charts, USD/CHF trades at 0.8202 and therefore just below that line. A confirmed weekly close is not in yet.
The way to 2028 hangs on two lines. In the area of the September high a rising trend line runs, and the pair bounced off it last week. Above that sits the horizontal level at 0.8300. Only a weekly close above both would turn the medium term picture from neutral to friendly. The 200 week line at 0.8563 would be the next target. If the decline continues below the 100 week line, the next level named here is 0.8049, and only under that would the low of the year at 0.7601 come back into view.
Resistance
- 0.8563
- 0.8300
Support
- 0.8049
- 0.7955
- 0.7601
USD/CHF forecast, long term
Click to enlargeLooking back: since the 1970s the pair has run inside a huge falling wedge, bounded by two downward trend lines. Since 2011 it has moved broadly sideways and with comparatively small swings. The all time low was reached in 2011 at 0.7067 francs per dollar.
Behind the long downtrend sits the inflation gap. The Fed projections name a median of 3.7% for PCE inflation in the fourth quarter of 2026 against the same quarter a year earlier. The SNB expects 0.7% for Swiss inflation as an annual average in 2026. A franc therefore loses purchasing power far more slowly than a dollar, and over decades the chart shows exactly that.
For the outlook to 2030 that means two things. The recovery since January is real and intact on the daily chart. It changes nothing about the wider frame as long as 0.8300 and the long averages sit above the price. To the downside the area around 0.7067 stays the last reliable level.
Resistance
- 0.8300
Support
- 0.7067
The monthly chart and what is taken so far
Click to enlargeLooking back: the monthly chart shows a short term uptrend that starts from the low of the year 2026. Above that, the sideways move that began in 2011 still dominates.
Outlook: on the monthly chart only a single average is taken so far. The price sits above the 20 month line at 0.8090, but below the 50 month line at 0.8657, the 100 month line at 0.9092 and the 200 month line at 0.9310. On top of that a falling trend line runs from the high of the year 2022 and has not been passed. On a monthly basis the chart picture is therefore neutral.
This is the core of the whole forecast. The longer the time frame, the less is taken. On the daily chart the price is above all four averages, on the weekly chart above two with the third being tested, on the monthly chart above one, and on the yearly chart the picture stays neutral. That staircase describes the situation better than any single directional call.
Resistance
- 0.9310
- 0.9092
- 0.8657
- 0.8300
Support
- 0.8090
- 0.7067
What is the USD/CHF currency pair?
USD/CHF is the currency pair made of the US dollar and the Swiss franc. The rate says how many francs one US dollar costs. When the rate falls, the dollar loses value and the franc gains.
Traders call the pair the Swissy. It is one of the major currency pairs in foreign exchange, but it moves more calmly than Cable or the Aussie. Against EUR/USD there is a pronounced negative correlation: when the euro rises against the dollar, USD/CHF usually falls with it.
The Swiss franc counts as a safe haven. In times of crisis capital flows into Switzerland, because the country is seen as politically and economically stable. That demand lifts the franc and pushes the USD/CHF rate down.
With this pair you always trade against the central bank as well. The Swiss National Bank can slow an excessive appreciation of the franc through purchases of foreign currency. A different kind of intervention was the surprise end of the euro minimum exchange rate on 15 January 2015, known as the franc shock. After it the franc appreciated sharply and USD/CHF broke down.
One note on the numbers of that day. How far USD/CHF really fell on 15 January 2015 looks different on every trading venue. In the data from FXCM, on which our charts are based, the low of that year sits at 0.8300. Other feeds show values down to the area around 0.73. During the franc shock the available liquidity was extremely thin for a while. Depending on the price feed and the pricing basis, historical extreme values can therefore differ from each other. The exact cause of the different lows cannot be determined from the charts alone. We work with the FXCM data throughout this article, so that text and charts match.
What moves the USD/CHF rate
The dollar has a clear policy rate advantage over the franc. These are the drivers to watch:
- The rate gap between the Fed and the SNB: the US Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on 16 September 2026, effective from 17 September. It was the first increase since July 2023, and the vote was unanimous. The Swiss National Bank has not touched its policy rate since the start of the year and confirmed it again on 24 September. It stands at 0.00%, so the gap is now about four percentage points.
- The franc as a safe haven: a rate gap works on the currency market like a pull. Capital flows into the currency with the higher rate. With USD/CHF that pull lifts the rate. Working against it is the demand for francs as a safe haven, which is independent of the rate. For years that second force was the stronger one.
- In September the rate won for the first time in a long while. The jump to the high of the year fell exactly on the day of the Fed decision. Whether more follows is decided at 0.8300.
- Interventions by the SNB: in its policy assessment of 24 September 2026 the bank left its policy rate at 0.00% and withdrew the raised willingness to intervene on the currency market that it had stated in March and June. It is now ready to act there if needed, and it names the depreciation of the franc that has already happened as the reason. For inflation it expects 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. That projection rests on the assumption that the policy rate stays at zero over the whole period. Such interventions cannot be predicted and are the single biggest risk in this pair.
The next dates. The SNB publishes its next policy assessment on 10 December 2026 at 09:30 Central European Time. The Fed meets again on 27 and 28 October. How much the franc has moved on past SNB days is measured in our article on the SNB interest rate decision.
What banks expect for USD/CHF
Swiss institutions publish exchange rate forecasts regularly. The overview below collects what was published most recently.
| Source | Expectation | As of |
|---|---|---|
| UBS (survey of Swiss companies) | 0.78 for the end of 2026 | 10 February 2026 |
| Schaffhauser Kantonalbank | 0.80 over three months, 0.78 over twelve months | 3 September 2026 |
| Traders Union | 0.8444 as the projected average in December 2026 | retrieved 21 September 2026 |
| Finanzradar | 0.84 for the end of 2026 | 31 August 2026 |
The expectations differ widely. The table combines a company survey, a bank forecast, a statistical model and a technical assessment. The dates and the forecast horizons differ as well. From these figures it cannot be derived how much the Fed decision changed expectations.
How reliable such forecasts are shows in one example from the same table. On 3 September the Schaffhauser Kantonalbank wrote that it considered rate increases by the Fed unlikely, as long as inflation did not pick up clearly again. Thirteen days later the Fed raised. That is not a reproach against the bank, it is the normal case: forecasts depend on assumptions and can be overtaken by new data or by monetary policy decisions. Use the numbers as a mood picture, not as a price target.
Frequently asked questions about the USD/CHF forecast
What is the USD/CHF forecast for 2026?
The picture has turned from neutral to friendly. On 21 September 2026 USD/CHF stood at 0.8211 and trades above all four moving averages on the daily chart. The decisive resistance is 0.8300. The published expectations lie far apart: the UBS company survey names 0.78 for the end of 2026, Finanzradar 0.84. The Schaffhauser Kantonalbank expects 0.80 over three and 0.78 over twelve months. Traders Union calculates an average of 0.8444 for December 2026.
Why did USD/CHF rise in September?
Because the Fed raised and the SNB did not. On 16 September 2026 the US central bank lifted its target range to 3.75 to 4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. The rate advantage of the dollar grew to about four percentage points, and the price jumped to the high of the year on the same day.
How high are the policy rates in the United States and Switzerland?
The gap is about four percentage points. The Fed has held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% since 17 September 2026. The Swiss National Bank stands at 0.00% and therefore still avoids negative rates. Its next policy assessment is due on 10 December 2026.
Can the SNB influence the rate?
Yes, and it has said so. The SNB reserves the right to intervene on the currency market and sharpens that wording into a raised willingness whenever the franc appreciates too fast. In September 2026 it withdrew the raised wording again. A change of monetary policy can also trigger strong moves: after the surprise end of the euro minimum exchange rate on 15 January 2015, USD/CHF broke down within minutes.
Is the Swiss franc a safe haven?
Yes. In times of crisis capital flows into Switzerland, because the country is seen as politically and economically stable and its central bank as reliable. That demand lifts the franc and pushes the USD/CHF rate down. This is exactly why the pair often does not rise in periods of stress, even though the US dollar counts as a refuge currency too.
How can USD/CHF be traded?
Through foreign exchange brokers or derivatives. The pair is one of the major currency pairs and the spreads are tight. Because of the intervention risk, every position needs a stop.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.