EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro to Dollar Outlook

All charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels, with FXCM prices. Update of 7 November 2026: weekly close at 1.1137 (Friday, 6 November). All five charts were exported on 7 November 2026 between 09:21 and 09:29 CET and show the weekly close of Friday at 1.1137. On the yearly chart the assessment has basically changed little.

On the 4-hour chart the grey-shaded zone shows the sideways drift of the past weeks. It reaches from 1.1104 to the upper limit in the area of 1.1270. The support line is broken, and an active resistance line limits the currently strong fall toward the 1.11 mark; the price stands at 1.1137.

A break of the resistance line to the upside would signal the next run toward the 2024 high. As long as the limits of the grey zone are not broken, the sideways phase stays active. Below, the lower edge of the zone at 1.1104 is the level, and behind it the May low at 1.1065.

The daily chart has shown the struggle for the zone between the May low and the June low since the beginning of October. The 2024 high stays in the center. Friday closed at 1.1137 after a high of 1.1235; before the May low there is still support at 1.11.

Above lies the resistance zone in the area of 1.1270 to 1.1280. After that come the broken lows as resistance: the June low at 1.1325 and the July low at 1.1353. Below lies the year low at 1.1104, 33 pips under the price, and behind it the May low at 1.1065, 72 pips below.

The weekly chart shows the bigger picture. It includes the 2024 high at 1.1214, the May 2025 low at 1.1065 and the lines from the daily chart: the white dashed line, the red falling line from the 2026 high and the July and June lows.

The past week closed at 1.1137, below the 2024 high and below the 1.12 mark. With a high of 1.1273 and a low of 1.1131 it shows wicks around the 2024 high and points to clear downward pressure.

From the darker red resistance line and the white dashed support line a downtrend channel results on the weekly chart. On a break of the May 2025 low at 1.1065 it would aim at the area around 1.08. Until then the May low is in focus, and support is to be expected there.

Two dates are coming up in the next few weeks. They are reasons to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction. The US date is in Eastern Time with central European time in brackets, the ECB date in Frankfurt time.

10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (14:30 CET): US consumer prices (CPI) for October (BLS schedule).

17 December, 14:15 CET: ECB rate decision after the meeting of 16 and 17 December (ECB calendar).

The background is the rate gap. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September and left it unchanged at the meeting of 28 October (FOMC statement). The ECB deposit rate has been 2.50 percent since 16 September and was left unchanged on 29 October. The dollar's rate lead is therefore 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points. More in our articles on the Fed rate decision and the ECB rate decision.

Two conditions describe the next big move; the third scenario is waiting in between. What counts in each case is the weekly close on the FXCM chart shown here; moves within the week do not count. These are reference levels, not order rules, and the chart picture has to be reassessed after every weekly close.

The long-term monthly chart shows the rising trend channel. It starts at the 2022 low and is drawn as a shaded area. If the market keeps moving inside this trend channel, upside potential can be derived. The recent downward tendency is the correction of the rise in 2025.

The monthly snapshot of 7 November shows November so far at 1.1137. The last two months are marked by the struggle for the 2024 high at 1.1214, together with the 2023 high the important support zone; the June low at 1.1325 forms the upper limit for the shorter time frames. The 2023 high at 1.1276 is not labeled here; the value comes from Karsten's chart of 1 October 2026. October produced a new year low at 1.1104 and closed at 1.1157, below the white dashed line of the previous local lows.

For 2027, the price reaction at the May low decides. The May low at 1.1065 remains the most important support. What matters is whether a counter-move still prevails towards the year end; then the June low at 1.1325 would be the nearest target. A return above the red resistance line would be the signal for the possible second move with targets above 1.22. A break of the May low, on the other hand, would likely first target quotes in the area around 1.09; on the longer-term charts the target can be further away, down to the area around 1.07. A weekly close below 1.12 counts as a break of the zone, and two weekly closes in a row were below it, at 1.1157 and 1.1137. Only a breakout from the sideways phase gives the signal. A weekly close above 1.19, on the other hand, would open targets in the 1.24 area.

The super long-term yearly chart shows the break of the long-term downtrend line. The turquoise line falls from the 2008 high. The strong yearly candle of 2025 broke it, and since then the price moves inside the range of this yearly candle. At the current reading EUR/USD is above this downtrend line; at the moment it looks like a retest.

For a new long-term uptrend, the 2026 high has to be exceeded. It lies at 1.2083 and was set in January. After that came the price reaction, a rejection to about the middle of the range of the 2025 yearly candle. EUR/USD opened 2026 at 1.1738 and has come back below the 2024 high at 1.1214, but the downtrend line is still expected to support; the 2026 low is at 1.1104. The possible recovery scenario stays within the rising trend channel and the break of the downtrend line.

The correction from the 2025 low at 1.0177 to the 2026 high has reached the 50 percent mark of a Fibonacci retracement. By calculation it lies at about 1.1130 and is not drawn on the chart; the 2026 low lies just below it. With yearly candles in particular, corrections in the 50 percent area are interesting and could point to support. The price behavior there therefore deserves more attention, also with a view to the supports already discussed.

No chart delivers a reliable number for 2030 or 2050. One can only name the levels that shape the big picture: the 2026 high at 1.2083 above and the 2022 low at 0.9535 below. Only a sustained break below 1.10 would bring parity back into play.