EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro to Dollar Outlook

All charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels, with FXCM prices. All five charts were exported on 17 October 2026 between 10:57 and 11:12 CEST and show the Friday close of 16 October at 1.1239. On the yearly chart the assessment has not changed.

On the 4-hour chart the price has moved above the 2024 high. The red line is now a rising resistance line, and the green rising line forms the support. A trend channel could form between the two.

On Wednesday the drop to 1.1113 was caught just before the 1.1100 level and bought back at once. On Friday EUR/USD closed at 1.1239, above the 2024 high at 1.1214.

Only a return below 1.12 would point to a broader sideways phase. As long as EUR/USD stays above 1.12, the channel takes priority. If the price falls back below it, that would suggest a broader sideways phase between 1.11 and 1.13. This short-term reading is separate from the bearish weekly-close condition in the scenarios below.

On the daily chart EUR/USD is trying to push back against the recent downward tendency. The price is above the 2024 high at 1.1214 and just above the white dashed line. Here the 1.12 level remains the deciding factor.

The week opened at 1.1186 and fell to 1.1113 on Wednesday. On Friday EUR/USD opened at 1.1218, rose to 1.1269, fell to 1.1208 and closed at 1.1239.

Prices above 1.12 point to a recovery into the 1.1350 area. The white dashed line connects the March low with the June low, and the price is just above it. Up there the broken lows wait as resistance: the June low at 1.1325 and the July low at 1.1353, 86 and 114 pips above the weekly close. Next comes the 2022 high at 1.1492. If the price falls back below 1.12, the recovery attempt has failed for now.

The weekly chart shows the bigger picture. It includes the 2024 high at 1.1214, the May 2025 low at 1.1065 and the lines from the daily chart: the white dashed line, the red falling line from the 2026 high and the July and June lows.

Last week's bar shows a recovery from 1.1113, above the May 2025 low at 1.1065. Before that, EUR/USD had fallen for seven weeks, since the high in August, down to the 2024 high. Last week opened at 1.1186, reached a high of 1.1269 and a low of 1.1113, and closed at 1.1239.

The firm close gives a positive outlook for the coming week. If the zone around the 2024 high and the 1.12 level holds, the broken lows at 1.1325 and 1.1353 remain the first resistance levels. If the price drops clearly below the weekly low at 1.1113, there is further room toward the May 2025 low at 1.1065.

Three dates are coming up in the next few weeks. They are reasons to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction. US dates are in Eastern Time with central European time in brackets, the ECB date in Frankfurt time. Europe switches to winter time on 25 October, the US on 1 November.

28 October, usually 2:00 p.m. ET (19:00 CET): Fed rate decision after the meeting of 27 and 28 October (FOMC calendar).

29 October, 14:15 CET (9:15 a.m. ET): ECB rate decision after the meeting of 28 and 29 October (ECB calendar).

6 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (14:30 CET): US jobs report for October (BLS schedule).

The background is the rate gap. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September, and the ECB deposit rate has been 2.50 percent since 16 September. The dollar's rate lead is therefore 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points. More in our articles on the Fed rate decision and the ECB rate decision.

Two conditions describe the next big move; the third scenario is waiting in between. What counts in each case is the weekly close on the FXCM chart shown here; moves within the week do not count. These are reference levels, not order rules, and the chart picture has to be reassessed after every weekly close.

The long-term monthly chart shows the rising trend channel. It starts at the 2022 low and is drawn as a shaded area. If the market keeps moving inside this trend channel, upside potential can be derived. The recent downward tendency is the correction of the rise in 2025.

The monthly snapshot of 17 October shows EUR/USD back above the 2024 high. The 2024 high at 1.1214 is drawn on the chart and, together with the 2023 high, forms the important support zone. The 2023 high at 1.1276 is not labeled here; the value comes from Karsten's chart of 1 October 2026. October opened at 1.1329, has reached a low of 1.1113 so far and stands at 1.1239. The long-term assessment stands.

For 2027, what matters is whether this zone holds. A weekly close below 1.12 counts as a break, and then the pair could fall significantly further. The close of 16 October was 1.1239, above it, so the zone has held. Below that there are still some yearly highs as support, but the chart picture would then become clearly weaker.

A return above the red resistance line would be the signal for a possible second move with targets above 1.22. A breakout above the June low at 1.1325 would be an earlier recovery milestone. A weekly close above 1.19, on the other hand, would open targets in the 1.24 area.

The super long-term yearly chart shows the break of the long-term downtrend line. The turquoise line falls from the 2008 high. At the current reading, EUR/USD is above this downtrend line.

For a new long-term uptrend, the 2026 high has to be cleared. It lies at 1.2083 and was set in January. EUR/USD opened 2026 at 1.1738 and has fallen back clearly on the yearly chart since then.

No chart delivers a reliable number for 2030 or 2050. One can only name the levels that shape the big picture: the 2026 high at 1.2083 above and the 2022 low at 0.9535 below. Only a sustained break below 1.10 would bring parity back into play.