Bitcoin Forecast: BTC/USD Levels, Scenarios and Targets

The daily chart shows the uptrend since the summer. From the low of the year at $57,718 on 1 July, bitcoin climbed above $80,000 in one move in August. On 21 September it broke above the May high at $82,814, with a daily high of $87,397.

Since 26 September the market has been consolidating. The daily candles move between about $82,500 and $87,250. Some daily lows dipped below the May high, but every daily close stayed above it. In our assessment the market is testing whether the old hurdle now works as support.

Karsten expects prices to keep rising overall. The target is the high of the year at $97,964 from 14 January, about 14 percent above the price of $86,010. What matters is that the daily closes stay above the May high.

The moving averages support the uptrend. All four are clearly rising, and the price trades above each of them. According to the legend at the top left of the daily chart, the 20-day line is at $83,866, the 50-day line at $79,918, the 100-day line at $71,792 and the 200-day line at $71,659; the lines themselves are not drawn in the chart.

The three paths translate Karsten's chart picture into levels. His view is an established uptrend, a target at the high of the year, and a negative picture only below $70,000. We set the scenario thresholds and the rule below as editors. They are orientation levels, not order rules, and the two directional paths also name what takes them off the table.

For the cards, the daily close in the Coinbase daily chart shown above counts. The daily candle closes at 00:00 UTC, which is 2:00 am CEST and from 25 October 1:00 am CET. A daily close beyond the level speaks for the scenario, and a following daily close back on the other side takes it off the table. Such a signal does not guarantee a continuation or that the target is reached; intraday spikes without a close do not count.

The uptrend is established on the weekly chart above as well. After the 2025 high at $126,296 in October, bitcoin fell to the low of the year at $57,718 in July 2026. Since then the weekly bars have been rising again, and at the end of September the price cleared the May high at $82,814 on a weekly basis.

The trend could continue towards $98,000. That is where the high of the year from January at $97,964 sits, the level where the weekly bars turned at the start of the year. The price is still about 32 percent below the 2025 high.

These events are coming up next. Bitcoin now reacts strongly to US interest rates and to flows into bitcoin ETFs. The dates are occasions to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction.

Wednesday, 7 October, 2:00 pm New York time (20:00 CEST): the minutes of the Fed meeting of 15 and 16 September (Federal Reserve calendar for October).

Wednesday, 14 October, 8:30 am New York time (14:30 CEST): US consumer prices for September (BLS release schedule).

Wednesday, 28 October, 2:00 pm New York time (19:00 CET): the Fed rate decision after the meeting of 27 and 28 October (FOMC meeting calendar). Europe has switched to winter time by then and the US has not, so it is one hour earlier than usual in Europe.

This part is written for readers who look beyond the next few weeks. It is reviewed at the start of the month, not daily.

The quarterly chart shows the longer-term picture: an established uptrend. The correction from the 2025 high at $126,296 ran into the third quarter of 2026, down to the low of the year at $57,718. In the current fourth quarter bitcoin trades at $86,010, between the 2025 low and the 2026 high.

Only a price below $70,000 would turn the chart picture negative. Until then the underlying trend points up, even if the 2025 low at $74,421 were tested once more.

Bank price targets answer a different question from the chart. Most of them apply to the end of 2026, Citigroup's to the next twelve months and Fidelity's as a next target, and they rest on valuation models, not on levels in the price chart.

For the end of 2026 the range is wide. Fundstrat (Tom Lee) expects $200,000 to $250,000, JPMorgan $150,000 to $170,000, Bernstein $125,000 and Standard Chartered $100,000. Citigroup's 12-month target is $113,000. NYDIG names $38,000 to $39,000, but as a bear scenario, not as its base case.

Until the end of September the revisions of these firms went down. Citigroup and Bernstein cut twice each in 2026, Standard Chartered once, after a first cut in December 2025. Then the direction turned: Fidelity strategist Jurrien Timmer named $100,000 as the next target at the end of September, and on 1 October Citigroup raised its target from $82,000 to $113,000, citing returning ETF inflows. The graphic below shows the revisions by firm.

Sources for the latest changes: the Citigroup increase as reported by Reuters, the Bernstein cut on Cointelegraph and Jurrien Timmer's new view on 24/7 Wall St.

For 2030 and beyond, the estimates vary widely. ARK Invest names $1.2 million for 2030 in its bull case (Cathie Wood, November 2025) and about $710,000 in its base case, Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong $300,000 to $400,000, VanEck $2.9 million for 2050. These targets come mostly from market participants with their own position in bitcoin and assume that bitcoin takes over a large part of the world's store of value.