What is the AUD/USD currency pair?
AUD/USD says how many US dollars one Australian dollar costs. When the price
rises, the Aussie gains and the US dollar loses ground.
Traders call the pair the Aussie. It is one of the most traded pairs in the
currency market and it has a reputation as a trend pair: moves often run in the
same direction for months, which makes it attractive for swing trading.
The Australian dollar is a commodity currency. Australia exports iron ore,
coal and gold, mostly to Asia. When
those commodity prices rise, more money flows into the country and the Aussie
tends to gain.
The Aussie also counts as a risk currency. In calm markets it is in demand,
in a crisis it falls quickly. The Corona low of March 2020 shows that in its
purest form, when the Aussie dropped below 0.56. The currency has floated
freely since 12 December 1983, when Australia gave up its fixed exchange rate.
At the time of the float one Aussie was worth about 90 US cents.
What moves the AUD/USD rate
The exchange rate depends on a few strong drivers. These are the ones to watch:
- The rate gap between the RBA and the Fed: the Reserve Bank of Australia
has held its cash rate at 4.35% since 6 May 2026 and confirmed that level
again on 11 August. The Fed has been at
3.75 to 4.00% since 17 September 2026. The Australian policy rate is
therefore 0.35 percentage points above the upper end of the US target
range. That gap can support the Aussie, but holding Australian dollars does
not give anyone a claim on the policy rate.
- Australia’s own rate path: the RBA raised three times in the first half of
2026 and has paused twice since. Governor Michele Bullock called inflation
still too high and kept the door open for further steps. While other central
banks think about cuts, the opposite direction is on the table in Australia.
- Commodities and China: Australia lives on exporting iron ore, coal and
gold, and the most important customer is China. When Chinese construction
runs, demand for iron ore rises and the Aussie gains. That is why the pair
often reacts more strongly to Chinese data than to Australian data. The
copper price is a useful second
gauge for the same demand.
- Risk appetite: the Aussie is a risk currency. When uncertainty rises,
investors leave it quickly, and that can outweigh the rate gap for a while.
- The strength of the US dollar itself: a broadly weak dollar lifts the pair
without anything changing in Australia. The
EUR/USD forecast is worth reading
alongside this page, because that pair is the leading gauge for the dollar.
One widespread assumption does not survive measurement. The often quoted
link between AUD/USD and commodity prices turns out weaker than expected. The
connection is real, but it only explains part of the move. Anyone forecasting
the Aussie through commodities alone misses the rate side and the risk side.
What happened in September 2026
The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on 16 September 2026, its
first increase since July 2023, with a vote of 12 to 0. The gap to the upper end
of the US range fell from 0.60 to 0.35 percentage points.
The price moved between 0.7238 and 0.7075 in September, but the decline began
before the rate decision. The high of the month came early in September, and
the price was already at 0.7138 on 15 September. How much of the move the
decision explains cannot be read from the monthly chart alone.
The next test is the RBA meeting on 28 and 29 September 2026.
Technical ratings
A compact overview of the technical situation is available on
TradingView. The
summary there bundles the most popular indicators, such as moving averages,
oscillators and pivots. For a long term view you can switch the interval to
monthly.
A technical rating sums up several indicators into one signal. That saves
time, but it does not replace your own chart analysis. The number says nothing
about where the stop and the target belong, and those two points decide the
result of a trade.
Conclusion: trend intact, resistance at the yearly high
The AUD/USD forecast points up across all four time frames. Short term the
price sits above both daily averages, medium term comfortably above the 50 week
line, and long term above the downtrend line from 2011 that it overcame in 2026.
Two forces support the Aussie. The rate gap runs in its favour, and the US
dollar has been broadly weak. One of these supports got smaller in September:
the Fed raised, and the rate gap narrowed. The trend has taken that so far.
Weak economic data from China stay a risk, and so do changing rate
expectations.
For practice, watch the yearly high. On the upside 0.7278 is the threshold,
on the downside the 100 day line at 0.7076. A break above the yearly high would
matter technically, because it would leave the range of several years.
This is market analysis, not investment advice. Trading currency pairs carries
the risk of losing your capital.
Frequently asked questions about the AUD/USD forecast
What is the AUD/USD forecast for 2026?
The chart points up. AUD/USD stood at 0.7122 on 21 September 2026 and so
above the 100 day line, the 200 day line and the 50 week average. Above the
yearly high at 0.7278 the way opens toward 0.7661.
Is the Australian dollar weak at the moment?
No, in 2026 it belongs to the stronger currencies. From the low for the year
at 0.6663 the Aussie has gained about seven percent. In the years before that it
was under pressure at times, and it has recovered since the low in the spring of
2025.
Why is the Australian dollar falling?
It is not falling at the moment, it is consolidating. AUD/USD gave ground in
September, but the decline began before the Fed decision of 16 September. The
range of the month runs from 0.7238 to 0.7075. The rate increase cut the gap to
the upper end of the US target range to 0.35 percentage points. How much of the
move that explains cannot be read from the monthly chart alone.
How high are the policy rates in Australia and the United States?
Australia is higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate at
4.35% since 6 May 2026, and the Fed stands at 3.75 to 4.00%. The Australian
policy rate is therefore 0.35 percentage points above the upper end of the Fed’s
target range.
What role do commodities play for the AUD/USD rate?
A large one, but not the only one. Australia exports above all iron ore,
coal and gold, mostly to China. Rising commodity prices support the Aussie.
Measured carefully, though, the link is weaker than often claimed: the rate side
and the risk side explain a considerable part of the move.
Since when has the Australian dollar traded freely?
Since 12 December 1983. The government under Bob Hawke decided on
9 December 1983 to give up the fixed exchange rate. At the time of the float the
Aussie was worth about 90 US cents. Supply and demand have set the price ever
since.
How can you trade AUD/USD?
Through forex brokers or derivatives. The Aussie is one of the most liquid
pairs and the spreads are tight. Because it falls quickly as a risk currency in
phases of stress, every position needs a stop.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.
