Euro Bund Future Forecast: Week, Month and Beyond
This analysis is from 4 November 2026. Prices have moved since, so the levels below may no longer apply until the next update.
Euro Bund Future forecast in 30 seconds
Where it stands
122.47 on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 16:33 CET, a little over three points above the 2026 low of 119.19 from 28 September.
Short term
The overriding resistance line is broken, and the short-term support line shows the upward tendency. Next the resistance zone around 123.50 waits.
Medium term
The decline since the March high of 130.53 ran in two steps. The second step is correcting now, so resistance is expected at 123.50.
Long term
After a weak September bar with a new yearly low came a recovery in October; November respects the zone around 123.50. The base at 126.53 stays broken.
On this page
- Euro Bund Future forecast in 30 seconds
- Euro Bund future forecast, short term
- Euro Bund future forecast, medium term
- Euro Bund future forecast, long term
- Three scenarios: which level decides
- The contract and the current numbers
- What is the Euro Bund future?
- Why the Bund future rises and falls
- Conclusion: a recovery from the 2026 low, but no turn yet
- Frequently asked questions
Euro Bund future forecast, short term
Click to enlargeLooking back: the daily chart shows the contract since May 2026. After the high of 127.69 on 30 June, price fell along the orange line below the May low at 123.74 and reached the 2026 low of 119.19 on 28 September. The gap at the start of September coincides with the switch from the September to the December contract and most likely stems mainly from it.
Outlook: the overriding resistance line is broken. Since the 2026 low price has been setting higher lows, and the green line below supports the upward tendency. At 122.47 the contract is just below the resistance zone around 123.50, where the September high at 123.18 and the May low at 123.74 coincide. A break of the green line would reactivate the targets at the 2026 low at 119.19, where the further development would have to be awaited.
On the daily chart the green support line matters now. As long as it holds, the higher lows stay intact. The three scenarios further down show which zones above and below turn the chart picture.
How to read the charts: on the daily chart the orange line is the overriding resistance line, the green one the short-term support line. Yellow dashed lines mark the 2026 low and the 2025 low, white lines the May low and the September high.
Every ECB rate decision hits the Bund future immediately. On 29 October 2026 the ECB left its key rates unchanged; the next meeting is on 17 December 2026. The decision is published at 14:15, and the press conference at 14:45 is among the most volatile moments in European futures trading.
Resistance
- 126.53
- 123.74
- 123.18
Price at analysis122.47
Support
- 119.19
Euro Bund future forecast, medium term
Click to enlargeLooking back: the weekly chart shows the Bund future since the end of 2024. Until early 2026 price held above the 2025 low at 126.53. After the 2026 high of 130.53 in early March it broke below this base. The decline ran in two steps: the first led into April, and after a counter-move until the end of June the second followed to the 2026 low in September.
Outlook: the recovery since late September is the correction of the second step. In the zone around 123.50 resistance is therefore expected, where the September high (123.18) and the May low (123.74) lie. Only above it would the broken zone around 126.53 come back into reach, which now acts as resistance. On the downside the 2026 low at 119.19 is the deciding level.
The fundamental headwind comes from the ECB. On 11 June 2026 the ECB raised its key rates for the first time since September 2023 and set the deposit rate at 2.25 percent. A pause followed on 23 July, and on 10 September a second rise to 2.50 percent, in force since 16 September according to the ECB key rates table. Rising market rates generally weigh on a bond future, although the market often prices in a turn in rates early.
Resistance
- 130.53
- 126.53
- 123.74
- 123.18
Support
- 119.19
Euro Bund future forecast, long term
Click to enlargeLooking back: the monthly chart shows the Euro Bund future since the end of 2022. Until 2021 price mostly traded between 155 and 180 points. When the era of low interest rates ended, it fell by almost 40 points in 2022. From 2023 to 2025 a base around 126.5 held, and the high of that phase was 139.40 in 2023.
Outlook: September was a weak monthly bar with a new yearly low. The low of 119.19 was the lowest level in the continuous, unadjusted front contract since June 2009. October brought a recovery instead, though price stayed inside the September bar. The still young November respects the resistance zone around 123.50, made of the May low (123.74) and the September high (123.18). The base of 2023 to 2025 at 126.53 has been broken since March; only a return above this area would improve the long-term picture. Over such long periods prices are only partly comparable, because each contract has a different basket of deliverable bonds. Below the September low the monthly chart shows no further level.
Two structural factors work against the Bund future over a year. First, the higher financing need for defence and infrastructure increases the supply of German government bonds, which weighs on prices. Second, the ECB turned the rate cycle upward again in 2026. If that cycle turns, the long-term picture is likely to change too, and the future can price in such a turn before it happens.
Resistance
- 139.40
- 126.53
Support
- 119.19
Three scenarios: which level decides
Three zones describe where the chart can tip. They are reference levels, not order rules, and the chart picture has to be reassessed after every new development.
Bullish: above 124
Above the resistance zone around 123.50 and the 124 mark, the chart picture turns into a positive outlook. That would overcome the whole zone between 123.18 and 123.74.
Wait: between 119 and 124
Between 119 and 124 the picture is neutral, and the sideways phase prevails. The contract stands at 122.47 in this range. In the short term the reactions at the zone around 123.50 and at the green line count.
Bearish: below 119
Below 119 the outlook is negative. The 2026 low at 119.19 would then be broken, and the chart gives no orientation below it.
Resistance
- 124.00
- 123.74
- 123.18
Support
- 119.19
The contract and the current numbers
The Bund future has moved away from its 2026 low. The actively traded contract is December 2026, ticker FGBL, and its last trading day is 8 December 2026. All values below refer to that contract on Eurex: the prices to the state of Wednesday, 4 November at 16:33 CET, volume and open interest to the trading day Tuesday, 3 November according to Eurex statistics.
The Euro Bund future is a futures contract traded on Eurex on a notional German government bond with a 6 percent coupon and a remaining maturity of 8.5 to 10.5 years. It counts as the most important gauge of long-term interest rates in the euro area. Trading it requires a broker with Eurex access; what the contract costs per trade is documented from real statements in our Interactive Brokers review.
| Figure | Value (as of 4 November 2026) |
|---|---|
| Price (daily chart, 16:33 CET) | 122.47 points |
| Weekly open | 122.25 points |
| Weekly low / high (current week) | 122.22 / 122.84 points |
| Change on the previous week’s close | +0.04 points (+0.03 percent) |
| Previous week, low / high | 121.76 / 122.64 points |
| 2026 low | 119.19 points (28 September) |
| Daily volume (Tuesday, 3 November) | 1,109,784 contracts |
| Open interest (Tuesday, 3 November) | 1,894,862 contracts |
| Active contract | FGBL December 2026 |
What stands out is how closely price and yield moved together lately. On 28 September the Bund future made its 2026 low, and on the same day the ten-year yield on German federal securities reached 3.69 percent, the highest since April 2011 on the Bundesbank yield curve (a Svensson estimate). By 3 November the yield had fallen to 3.38 percent, and the future rose 3.24 points from its 28 September close of 119.28 to the settlement price of 3 November (122.52). In the bigger picture, that is no more than a rebound so far.
One point of price movement equals 1,000 euros per contract. The smallest price change is 0.01 points and is worth 10 euros. The previous week’s range of 0.88 points therefore meant 880 euros for a single contract. Keeping that size in mind gives a far more realistic view of the risk in a position.
What is the Euro Bund future?
Behind the clumsy name sits a contract on a bond that does not exist in that form. The Euro Bund future does not refer to a single security but to a notional reference bond. Eurex publishes in advance which real German government bonds are deliverable, and at maturity the seller picks one of them.
The Euro Bund future, or Bund future for short, is a standardised futures contract on Eurex with a notional value of 100,000 euros. It refers to a notional German government bond with a 6 percent coupon and a remaining maturity of 8.5 to 10.5 years.
The price is quoted as a percentage of the notional value. A level of 125.08 points therefore means 125.08 percent of par. On Eurex, trading runs until 22:00 Frankfurt time, starting at 2:10 in summer and 1:10 in winter, which makes the contract interesting outside classic exchange hours as well.
The contract data
Standardisation is the real advantage of a future. Because every contract is built identically, liquidity is high and the spread very tight. The following data comes directly from Eurex.
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FGBL |
| Notional value per contract | 100,000 euros |
| Coupon of the reference bond | 6 percent |
| Remaining maturity of deliverable bonds | 8.5 to 10.5 years |
| Smallest price change | 0.01 points, equal to 10 euros |
| Expiry months | March, June, September, December |
| Last trading day | two exchange days before delivery, close 12:30 |
| Trading hours | 2:10 to 22:00 Frankfurt time (from 1:10 in winter) |
Only three expiry months are tradable at any time. Trading concentrates almost entirely on the nearest contract. About two weeks before expiry, most market participants roll their positions into the next date. Anyone who wants to hold a position longer has to plan that rollover themselves.
Bund, Bobl, Schatz and Buxl compared
The Bund future is only one of four interest-rate futures on German government bonds. They differ solely in the remaining maturity of the deliverable paper. The longer the maturity, the more strongly the price reacts to a change in rates. The data comes from the German Finance Agency.
| Contract | Remaining maturity | Coupon |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Schatz future | 1.75 to 2.25 years | 6 percent |
| Euro Bobl future | 4.5 to 5.5 years | 6 percent |
| Euro Bund future | 8.5 to 10.5 years | 6 percent |
| Euro Buxl future | 24 to 35 years | 4 percent |
For beginners the maturity is the most important lever. For the same change in rates, the Schatz future moves far less than the Buxl future. Anyone who wants to keep the rate risk per contract small tends to choose the short maturity. Anyone betting deliberately on a turn in rates finds the greater leverage at the long end.
Advantages and disadvantages
Before you take a position, you should know both sides. The contract is liquid and transparent, but it does not forgive carelessness in risk management.
Advantages
- Very high liquidity: with 1,894,862 open positions it is one of the most traded interest-rate futures in Europe. Getting in and out usually works even in size without notable slippage.
- Tight spreads: thanks to standardisation, the difference between bid and ask is usually only one tick, which lowers trading costs noticeably.
- Long trading hours: trading runs until 22:00 Frankfurt time, from 2:10 in summer and 1:10 in winter, and covers the Asian session as well as US trading.
- Direct access to rate expectations: no other instrument reflects euro area rate expectations so directly, which also makes it suitable for hedging bond portfolios.
Disadvantages
- High capital requirement: one point of movement equals 1,000 euros per contract. Clean risk management needs an account to match.
- Leverage works both ways: the margin posted is only a fraction of the notional value, so losses can exceed it.
- Rollover is compulsory: positions expire with the contract. Holding them means actively moving into the next expiry month, at extra cost.
- Event risk on rate dates: around ECB decisions and important inflation data, spreads widen abruptly. A tight stop is then easily triggered, even when the idea was right.
Why the Bund future rises and falls
The most important rule is also the one that confuses beginners most. Price and yield run in opposite directions. When the Bund future rises, the yield on ten-year German government bonds falls. When it falls, the yield rises. Once that has sunk in, the contract reads immediately as an interest-rate barometer.
The Bund future and the yield on ten-year German government bonds generally move in opposite directions. A rising price signals falling rate expectations, a falling price signals rising rate expectations.
The reason lies in the fixed coupon. A bond already issued pays an unchanging rate of interest. If the general level of interest rates rises, that older paper becomes less attractive. Its price then falls until the yield is in line with the market again. The future reflects exactly that move.
What drives the price
- ECB monetary policy: the deposit rate has stood at 2.50 percent since 16 September. After the first rise since September 2023 in June and the pause in July, the ECB raised again in September. On 29 October the ECB paused again; the next decision is due on 17 December 2026, see our ECB rate decision article.
- Supply of German government bonds: higher spending on defence and infrastructure means more issuance. More supply weighs on prices if demand does not grow with it.
- Inflation data: surprisingly high readings push rate expectations up and weigh on the contract. Weak readings work the other way.
- Risk appetite: in a crisis investors look for safe havens. German government bonds benefit then, and the future rises even though monetary policy has not changed.
- US interest rates as a pacemaker: the yield on ten-year US Treasuries acts on the European market through the rate spread. A strong rise in the US often drags German yields with it. The US side is covered in the Fed rate decision. How nervous the US rate market is shows in the MOVE index, and where US yields could go in our interest rate forecast.
In practice that means: not every drop is a break in the trend. A fall on an ECB day has a different quality from one on an uneventful trading day. So always check first whether a scheduled event is behind the move, before you reassess the chart.
Conclusion: a recovery from the 2026 low, but no turn yet
The Bund future has moved away from its 2026 low, but that does not end the decline since March. At 122.47 points (as of 4 November, 16:33 CET) the contract stands a little over three points above the 2026 low. The orange line on the daily chart is broken, but the resistance zone around 123.50 still lies above it.
In the short term, the zone around 123.50 and the green support line decide. Above 124 the chart picture turns positive, between 119 and 124 the sideways phase prevails, below 119 the outlook turns negative. With a longer view, watch 126.53: only above the broken base of 2023 to 2025 does the picture brighten.
The next push comes from the ECB on 17 December 2026. The decision is due at 14:15 Frankfurt time, and the press conference follows at 14:45. Until then it is worth looking especially carefully at position size, because one point of movement means 1,000 euros per contract.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Bund future tell us?
It counts as the most important interest-rate barometer in the euro area. It shows what rate expectations the market is pricing in for the coming ten years. A rising price stands for falling rate expectations, a falling price for rising ones. On 4 November 2026 the contract stood at 122.47 points at 16:33 CET.
What happens when the Bund future rises?
A rising Bund future means falling yields. Price and yield always move in opposite directions. When the contract climbs, the yield on the ten-year German government bond falls. For savers that means worse terms on deposits, for borrowers tendentially cheaper mortgages.
Why is the Bund future falling?
Falling prices reflect rising rate expectations. Three drivers work together: the ECB raised the deposit rate twice in 2026, most recently to 2.50 percent, the federal government’s financing needs increase the supply of bonds, and stubborn inflation prevents quick rate cuts.
What is the forecast for 2026?
In the short term the Bund future is recovering, while the bigger picture stays bearish. From the 2026 low at 119.19 it climbed to 122.47. The zone around 123.50 is the next hurdle, and above 124 the picture would turn positive. Below 119 the picture turns negative, and below it the chart shows no further level.
How is the price of the Euro Bund future formed?
The price moves inversely to interest rates. It is quoted as a percentage of the notional value of 100,000 euros. A conversion factor adjusts the bonds that can really be delivered to the notional reference bond with its 6 percent coupon. The daily settlement price reflects market activity.
How can I trade the Euro Bund future?
Trading runs through Eurex and needs a broker with access to the futures exchange. You can bet on rising prices (long) or falling prices (short). What matters is knowing the margin requirement and having a realistic view of the contract size: one point equals 1,000 euros.
What are the risks?
Leverage is the central risk. Because only a fraction of the notional value is posted as margin, losses can exceed the amount invested. On top of that come market risk from rate swings, wide ranges around ECB dates, and the duty to roll positions before expiry.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.