Crude Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent, Levels and Scenarios

The daily chart shows the position at a glance. The WTI future trades at $89.39, the day opened at $93.46 and the low so far is $88.83. The price is carried by the medium-term uptrend line that starts at the July low, has been confirmed several times and held again over the past days.

Above the market a short-term downtrend line caps every attempt. It was tested yesterday and again today, and it was not cleared. Between the two lines the market lacks the impulse that starts a new move.

The most important level sits just below. The lows of the past weeks, marked with green arrows on the chart, all sit close above the 2024 high at $87.67. That is the next horizontal support, and a confirmed break of it puts the 2025 high at $80.77 in focus. The green uptrend line runs above that zone, so it can break first while the support still holds.

Seen from the daily chart the picture is neutral. It is not a sell signal and not a buy signal, but a narrow position between two lines that resolves sooner or later.

At that price a barrel of WTI costs $89.39 and a barrel of Brent $99.49. A barrel holds 42 US gallons or 158.99 litres, so the crude oil equivalent is about $2.13 per gallon or $0.56 per litre. Those are not retail fuel prices, which add refining, transport, taxes and margin.

Two conditions describe the next move, a third describes waiting. Each one names what has to happen and what takes it off the table. They are orientation levels, not order rules.

What counts is the daily close in the CL1! chart shown above. A daily close beyond the level named confirms a scenario, and a following daily close back on the other side takes it off the table. Intraday spikes without a close do not count, and the weekly close comes on top as extra confirmation, not as a second definition.

One time frame higher the squeeze becomes visible. Since the March high the oil price has been running inside a large diagonal triangle: from above the falling line from the high of the year, from below the horizontal support at the 2024 high. Both edges are moving towards each other.

The current week has already tested the lower edge. It opened at $93.58, rose to $96.54 and fell to $88.58, just below the previous week's low of $88.67. As of the chart snapshot on Friday at 14:40 CEST the zone above the 2024 high has held, and the weekly candle is still open.

For next week that means the decision falls at the same level as in the daily chart. The daily close stays the rule, and a weekly close below $87.67 would come on top as extra confirmation. If the zone holds, the range between $87.67 and the 2023 high at $95.03 stays the frame for the coming days.

Brent looks better than WTI. The chart shows $99.49. The uptrend line from the July low was tested successfully this week, and yesterday the market crossed the downtrend line from the September high.

Brent has fallen back below $100. The daily chart shows an open of $102.47 and a high so far of $102.85; at 14:45 CEST the price is $99.49. The next question is whether the market can regain the round-number level and hold it. Below, the low of this week stands at $95.14 from 30 September (Yahoo Finance, contract BZZ26, a different data source from the ICE chart).

Since 1 October the December contract has been the front month. The November contract expired on 30 September. Anyone comparing Brent prices over several weeks has to know about that switch, otherwise they see a jump that is not a market move.

Three dates are close ahead. They are occasions to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction.

4 October, OPEC+: the seven countries with additional voluntary production adjustments meet again to review market conditions and their production policy. On 6 September they kept the September level for October (OPEC statement of 6 September 2026).

6 October, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: the US Energy Information Administration publishes its new price and production estimates. The current edition is from 9 September 2026.

7 October, 10:30 am New York time (16:30 CEST): the next weekly US oil inventory release from the EIA, the single most watched date of the week. Holiday weeks move it: the week ending 9 October is published on 15 October at 12:00 pm New York time (EIA release schedule).

On top of that comes the news around the Iran war. In its September outlook the EIA describes rising but still constrained oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and over alternative routes, and assumes production in the region stays below pre-war levels into the second quarter of 2027. New reports of attacks or negotiations can change that quickly, which is why the scenarios have to be checked again when they come.

This part is written for readers who look beyond the day. It is reviewed at the start of the month, not daily.

In the quarterly chart the market sits inside a large diagonal triangle. The red line runs down from the record high of 2008, the green uptrend lines come up from below. The current quarter started on 1 October and is only two days old.

Karsten's own view on it is rather positive: if the price breaks above the red line at some point, he thinks a run towards new all-time highs is possible. That is a chart observation with a condition, not a price target: a triangle says nothing about which side it will be left.

Oil in 2026 so far: WTI opened the year at $57.41, fell to its low for the year at $55.76 on 7 January and reached $119.48 on 9 March. Since then the market has been unwinding the risk premium.

The US Energy Information Administration expects falling prices in the medium term. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 9 September 2026 the EIA forecasts Brent spot prices averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and $74 in 2027, assuming production rises and inventories rebuild. Those are spot-price averages, not price targets for the future contract. The next edition on 6 October updates them.