Crude Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent, Levels and Scenarios

The weekly chart shows where the oil price stands. From this week on, the charts run on the US Oil price (USOIL), which is WTI as most traders see it in CFD trading; until last week it was the CL1! future. The week opened at $91.77, rose to $93.20, fell to $86.86 and closed at $91.67.

Open and close are almost level, so the week is a doji. A doji is a candle without a real body: buyers and sellers held each other in balance over the week. After four weeks of correction from the September high, that can mean the selling pressure is easing; the next weeks have to confirm it.

The 2024 high has held. The weekly low at $86.86 was just below the 2024 high at $87.59, the close clearly above it again, so the level worked as support. The green medium-term uptrend line from the July low runs in the same area. A little lower lies the September low at $86.13.

Overall the picture looks good for rising prices again. The uptrend since July is intact and the support has held. The first hurdle to the upside is the 2023 high at $94.99.

At the weekly close a barrel of US Oil costs $91.67. A barrel holds 42 US gallons or 158.99 litres, so the crude oil equivalent is about $2.18 per gallon or $0.58 per litre. Those are not retail fuel prices, which add refining, transport, taxes and margin.

The 2023 high above and the September low below decide. The price levels come from Karsten's charts; the closing conditions are an editorial guideline. They are reference levels, not order rules.

What counts is the daily close in the US Oil chart (USOIL). A daily close beyond the level named confirms a scenario, and a following daily close back on the other side takes it off the table. Intraday spikes without a close do not count; the weekly close comes on top as extra confirmation, it does not replace the rule.

One time frame higher the big move of the year becomes visible. From the 2026 high at $119.48 in March the oil price corrected down to the July low at $67.04. Since then it has been rising again, in September up to $106.75.

So far October is holding above the September low. It opened at $90.40, its low is $86.86 and so above the September low at $86.13; at the weekly close it stands at $91.67. The monthly candle is only two weeks old and not finished.

The supports lie close together. The September low at $86.13 and the 2024 high at $87.59 together form the zone that has to hold. The most important resistance is the 2023 high at $94.99: if it is taken, the September high at $106.75 comes into view, and after that the high of the year.

In Brent the uptrend is established. The North Sea grade, listed as UK Oil (UKOIL) in CFD trading, has been rising since the July low. The trend is confirmed by the green uptrend line, which was tested several times and held most recently at the end of September and the start of October. On Friday Brent opened at $103.87, rose to $105.09 and closed at $104.53.

The price target is the high of the year from March. On the daily chart it lies just below $120. As long as the trend line holds, this path stays open; if it breaks on a daily close, the picture has to be reassessed.

Brent trades well above WTI. At the weekly close almost $13 separated UK Oil and US Oil. Brent is the benchmark for the oil price in Europe, WTI for the United States; both move in the same direction, but each grade has its own levels.

From this week the forecast follows the CFD prices. US Oil (USOIL) and UK Oil are the prices of WTI and Brent as most private traders trade them through their CFD broker. The futures CL1! and BRN1!, on which the charts ran until now, always show the front contract; at the monthly rollover the chart shows a jump that is not a market move.

The WTI levels shift by only a few cents. The 2024 high was $87.67 in the future and is $87.59 on the US Oil chart, the 2023 high $95.03 against $94.99. Anyone comparing this forecast with a futures chart has to allow for that gap.

Three dates are coming up soon. They are occasions to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction.

15 October, 12:00 pm New York time (18:00 CEST): the weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA. Because of Columbus Day on Monday, they come out on Thursday this time instead of the usual Wednesday (EIA release schedule).

1 November, OPEC+: the next meeting of the seven countries with voluntary production adjustments. On 4 October they kept the September production level for November as well (OPEC statement of 4 October 2026).

10 November, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: the next edition of the price and production estimates. The current one from 6 October raised the Brent estimate sharply (figures in the longer view below).

On top of that comes the news around the Iran war. In its October outlook the EIA assumes that oil flows from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz and over the alternative routes stay constrained through the fourth quarter; it puts the region's shut-in production in that quarter at an average of 4.5 million barrels a day. The attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, one of the most important bypasses of the strait, showed in September how quickly that can change. New reports of attacks or negotiations are therefore a reason to check the scenarios again.

This part is written for readers who look beyond the day. It is reviewed at the start of the month, not daily.

In the yearly chart the direction is clear: crude oil is in an uptrend. The year 2026 opened at $57.41 and, after the high of $119.48, stands at $91.67. The most important levels are the previous yearly highs: 2025 at $80.73, 2024 at $87.59 (rounded to $87.60 in the yearly chart), 2023 at $94.99, 2022 at $129.42 and the record high of 2008 at $147.27.

The longer-term price target is the 2026 high. As long as the uptrend holds, a return to $119.48 is the target; above it lie the 2022 high and the record high. That is a chart observation with a condition, not a promise: if the zone at the 2024 high breaks, the picture shifts.

Oil in 2026 so far: WTI opened the year at $57.41, fell to its low for the year at $55.76 on 7 January and reached $119.48 on 9 March. Until July the market unwound the risk premium, and since then it has been rising again.

The US Energy Information Administration has raised its price estimate sharply. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026 the EIA expects Brent spot prices to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 more than in September. For the whole of 2026 it expects $96, for 2027 $84 instead of $74 before. It names the attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf and the very tight diesel market as reasons. Those are spot-price averages, not price targets for the chart; the next edition comes out on 10 November.