Crude Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent, Levels and Scenarios

The weekly chart shows where the oil price stands. Since 11 October the charts have run on the US Oil price (USOIL), which is WTI as most traders see it in CFD trading; before that it was the CL1! future. The week to 16 October opened at $91.83, rose to $99.34, fell to $89.61 and closed at $99.05, near the weekly high. The week to 23 October opened at $99.04, rose to $103.92, fell to $95.25 and closed at $103.45, near the weekly high. The week to 30 October opened at $102.61, rose to $104.99, fell to $99.44 and closed at $102.94. Its high was above the previous week's high of $103.92 but could not be held into the close. The previous week opened at $102.39, rose to $102.75, fell to $86.65 and closed at $90.35. The new week opened at $90.83, rose to $91.42, fell to $83.88 and stands at $88.88 on Friday morning. The Fed meeting with unchanged rates triggered no spectacular reaction.

The doji was followed by two firm weeks. A doji is a candle without a real body: buyers and sellers held each other in balance in the week to 9 October. After four weeks of correction from the September high, the selling pressure eased, and buyers won out with two firm weekly closes before the week to 30 October turned volatile.

The 2024 high has held. The low of the week to 9 October at $86.86 was just below the 2024 high at $87.59, and the close was clearly above it again; the level worked as support. In the same area runs the medium-term uptrend line from the July low, now drawn in orange on the weekly chart. A little lower lies the September low at $86.13. From this zone the price broke out upward in the week to 16 October and left the 2023 high at $94.99 behind. It now serves as the next support. In the week to 23 October the 2023 high was tested as support: the weekly low at $95.25 was just above it, and demand set in there. The breakout above the previous week's high at $99.34 continued, and the week closed at $103.45 above the $100 mark. In the following week the price came back from the weekly high at $104.99 and tested the $100 mark at the weekly low at $99.44, which was only just undercut; the close at $102.94 was above the mark. The high could not be held in the week from 2 November: the price fell to the 2023 high, and on Wednesday the area around $100 gave way. It fell below the 2023 high and below the line of the rising local lows down to $86.65, just above the September low at $86.13. There the recovery set in, but the weekly close at $90.35 stayed below the line, which therefore counts as broken. The new week started around the close and then fell to $83.88, below both levels; since then the price has recovered to $88.88.

The weekly close decides on a reversal bar. The week shows a low at $83.88 and a price of $88.88 so far, so the September low at $86.13 holds. If the week closes in this area, the reversal would be visible on the chart, and a sideways stabilization could follow. Only a break of the weekly low would raise the pressure on the $80 mark at the 2025 high at $80.73, below it the July low at $67.04 would act as the target. To the upside the broken orange line around $93 acts as resistance, above it lies the 2023 high at $94.99: as long as the price stays below, the need for correction has to be worked off.

At the weekly close a barrel of US Oil costs $90.35. A barrel holds 42 US gallons or 158.99 litres, so the crude oil equivalent is about $2.15 per gallon or $0.57 per litre. Those are not retail fuel prices, which add refining, transport, taxes and margin.

The 2023 high above and the September low below decide. The price levels come from Karsten's charts; the closing conditions are an editorial guideline. They are reference levels, not order rules.

What counts is the daily close in the US Oil chart (USOIL). A daily close beyond the level named confirms a scenario, and a following daily close back on the other side takes it off the table. Intraday spikes without a close do not count; the weekly close comes on top as extra confirmation, it does not replace the rule.

One time frame higher the big move of the year becomes visible. From the 2026 high at $119.48 in March the oil price corrected down to the July low at $67.04. Since then it has been rising again, in September up to $106.75. September came back clearly from the high and could have formed a reversal bar.

October developed strongly and closed firmly in the upper part of its range. It opened at $90.40, its low was $86.86 and so above the September low at $86.13, its high at $104.99 was below the September high at $106.75; it closed at $102.94. Because October ran inside the range of the September candle, that speaks for a wait-and-see stance at first. Only clearly new highs above the September high, in the area of $108, would announce a breakout from the September range and follow-through momentum. November opened at $102.39, fell to $86.65 in the first week and to $83.88 in the second; at $88.88 it is above the low of September again.

The supports lie close together. The September low at $86.13 and the 2024 high at $87.59 together form the zone that has to hold; this week the price fell below it and now stands in it again. The 2023 high at $94.99 was taken in October and has been undercut again in November. The most important resistance is now this level; if it is reclaimed on a closing basis, the September high at $106.75 comes back into view.

In Brent the uptrend is established. The North Sea grade, listed as UK Oil (UKOIL) in CFD trading, has been rising since the July low. The trend was confirmed by the green uptrend line, which was tested several times and held most recently at the end of September and the start of October; now the price has fallen below it. The week to 23 October was very strong: Brent moved away from the September high at $109.97, took out the May high and closed at $117.39, at the weekly high. The week to 30 October held that level in the retest, and Brent closed on Friday at $113.41 with a cushion above it. On Thursday of the previous week the price had fallen below the green trend line and briefly also below the October low at $96.55, down to the area of $93, where demand set in. Friday closed at $97.98. The current daily bar opened at $95.84, rose to $96.36, fell to $95.06 and stands at $96.31: the price lies above the averages of 200 and 100 days at $93.74 and $94.66; the level from September at $90.70 it had briefly undercut on Tuesday.

Brent holds the averages. At $96.31 the price is above the 200-day line at $93.74, which carries signal effect for the uptrend, and above the 100-day average at $94.66. A weekly close above the October low at $96.55 should form a stabilizing tendency, then the return above $100 comes within reach. Only a break of the weekly low would raise the pressure on the $85 mark; below the April low at $86.09 the targets at $80 and $70 would be likely.

Brent trades well above WTI. On Friday morning a good $7 separated UK Oil and US Oil. Brent is the benchmark for the oil price in Europe, WTI for the United States; both move in the same direction, but each grade has its own levels.

Since 11 October the forecast follows the CFD prices. US Oil (USOIL) and UK Oil are the prices of WTI and Brent as most private traders trade them through their CFD broker. The futures CL1! and BRN1!, on which the charts ran until now, always show the front contract; at the monthly rollover the chart shows a jump that is not a market move.

The WTI levels shift by only a few cents. The 2024 high was $87.67 in the future and is $87.59 on the US Oil chart, the 2023 high $95.03 against $94.99. Anyone comparing this forecast with a futures chart has to allow for that gap.

Two dates are coming up soon. They are occasions to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction.

10 November, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: the next edition of the price and production estimates. The current one from 6 October raised the Brent estimate sharply (figures in the longer view below).

29 November, OPEC+: the next meeting of the seven countries with voluntary production adjustments. On 1 November they confirmed the September production level for December as well (OPEC statement of 1 November 2026).

On top of that comes the news around the Iran war. In its October outlook the EIA assumes that oil flows from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz and over the alternative routes stay constrained through the fourth quarter; it puts the region's shut-in production in that quarter at an average of 4.5 million barrels a day. The attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, one of the most important bypasses of the strait, showed in September how quickly that can change. New reports of attacks or negotiations are therefore a reason to check the scenarios again.

This part is written for readers who look beyond the day. It is reviewed at the start of the month, not daily.

In the yearly chart the direction is clear: crude oil is in an uptrend. The year 2026 opened at $57.41 and, after the high of $119.48, stands at $88.88. The most important levels are the previous yearly highs: 2025 at $80.73, 2024 at $87.59 (rounded to $87.60 in the yearly chart), 2023 at $94.99, 2022 at $129.42 and the record high of 2008 at $147.27. The price has come back from the high of the year and now quotes above the 2024 high again; the 2023 high at $94.99, which it has recently undercut, is the significant one among them.

The longer-term price target is the 2026 high. As long as the uptrend holds, a return to $119.48 is the target; above it lie the 2022 high and the record high. The high of the year is far away by now; in the short term the question is whether the pullback ends at the September low. That is a chart observation with a condition, not a promise: if the zone at the 2024 high breaks lastingly, the picture shifts; this week it was briefly undercut.

The US Energy Information Administration has raised its price estimate sharply. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026 the EIA expects Brent spot prices to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 more than in September. For the whole of 2026 it expects $96, for 2027 $84 instead of $74 before. It names the attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf and the very tight diesel market as reasons. Those are spot-price averages, not price targets for the chart; the next edition comes out on 10 November.

Oil in 2026 so far: WTI opened the year at $57.41, fell to its low for the year at $55.76 on 7 January and reached $119.48 on 9 March. Until July the market unwound the risk premium, after that it rose again, and in November it came back clearly. At the close on 6 November WTI (CL1!) stood at $90.34 and Brent (BRN1!) at $98.32; those are futures prices, and jumps at the monthly contract rollover are roll differences, not market moves.