Natural Gas Price Forecast: Henry Hub Levels and Scenarios
This analysis is from 18 October 2026. Prices have moved since, so the levels below may no longer apply until the next update.
Natural gas ended the week at $3.358. Before that the price rose to $3.598 and met resistance at the February high of $3.604. At the close it stood just below the June high at $3.403; on the daily chart, an established uptrend is correcting.
Natural Gas forecast in 30 seconds
Next week
Resistance at the February high; the price sits just below the June high.
Short term
Uptrend on the daily chart, currently a correction.
Long term
Stabilization at the 2025 low, possibly the start of a base.
Dates
EIA storage report on 22 October, new EIA outlook on 10 November.
On this page
- Natural Gas forecast in 30 seconds
- Natural gas forecast for the week of 19 October 2026: resistance at the February high
- Natural gas forecast for Monday, 19 October 2026 and the coming days: a correction in the uptrend
- What can move the natural gas price next
- Three scenarios: which level decides
- Natural gas forecast long term: a base at the 2025 low?
- Quarterly chart: price development since 2017
- Natural gas forecast 2026 to 2028: what the EIA and Fitch expect
- Natural gas forecast 2030: what the EIA calculates
- Natural gas forecast 2040 and 2050
- What is natural gas?
- What moves the natural gas price
- How this forecast is made
- Conclusion: stabilization at the 2025 low, resistance at the February high
- Frequently asked questions
- Please note
Natural gas forecast for the week of 19 October 2026: resistance at the February high
Click to enlargeAll charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels and show the natural gas CFD from Capital.com. They were exported on Sunday, 18 October 2026, between 21:48 and 21:52 CEST. The market was closed, so every chart shows Friday's close on 16 October 2026 at $3.358. All prices are in US dollars per MMBtu.
On the weekly chart, natural gas has been rising since the August low. Last week the market met resistance at the February high at $3.604. The week opened at $3.397, rose to $3.598, fell to $3.298 and closed at $3.358.
In the short term, the market is trading just below the June high. That level is at $3.403, only about 4.5 cents above the close of $3.358. Above it comes the February high, where last week's rise was stopped.
The levels for next week, from top to bottom: the February high at $3.604 and the June high at $3.403 as resistance; below the close, the 2025 low at $2.737 and the 2026 low at $2.638 as support.
Resistance
- $3.604
- $3.403
Price at analysis$3.358
Support
- $2.737
- $2.638
Natural gas forecast for Monday, 19 October 2026 and the coming days: a correction in the uptrend
Click to enlargeOn the daily chart, an established uptrend is in place, and a correction is currently under way. That is how Karsten reads the daily chart. A correction is a countermove within a trend that does not yet end the trend itself. It is no guarantee that the trend continues. The daily chart below shows the move since the start of the year.
On Friday, natural gas fell back below the June high. The day opened at $3.450, rose to $3.464, fell to $3.298 and closed at $3.358. Above the price lie the June high at $3.403 and the February high at $3.604, below it the 2025 low at $2.737.
What can move the natural gas price next
The most important recurring date is the storage report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). It is normally released on Thursdays at 10:30 a.m. New York time, usually 4:30 p.m. in Germany (CEST in summer, CET in winter). If the injection differs from expectations, the price often reacts straight away. The dates are reasons to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction.
22 October: EIA storage report, 4:30 p.m. CEST.
28 October: trading ends in the November future on NYMEX. For the CFD shown here, this is not an expiry date.
29 October: EIA storage report exceptionally at 3:30 p.m. CET, because Europe switches to winter time on 25 October and the US only on 1 November.
10 November: new short-term outlook from the EIA (Short-Term Energy Outlook).
13 and 25 November: storage report moved, to Friday 13 November at 4:30 p.m. CET and to Wednesday 25 November at 6:00 p.m. CET (EIA schedule).
When the US natural gas market trades in German time is explained in our guide to futures market hours.
Three scenarios: which level decides
Karsten currently names no signal level for natural gas. The cards therefore only sort the levels from his charts: what lies above the price, what describes the current situation and what follows below. They are reference levels, not order rules, and the chart needs a fresh look after every week.
Bullish: June high and February high above the price
Above the close lie two highs from this year. First the June high at $3.403, then the February high at $3.604, where the market met resistance last week. Karsten considers a base possible that could lead to further rising prices. The charts currently show no signal level for rising prices.
Wait: a correction in the uptrend
On the daily chart, an established uptrend is correcting. The price stands just below the June high and below the February high, where the rise was last stopped. How far the correction reaches, the charts do not show yet.
Bearish: the 2025 low and the trend line below
Below the price lie the supports from the monthly chart. Karsten names the 2025 low at $2.737 and the 2026 low at $2.638. In 2026 the 2025 low was undercut several times without leading to lasting lower prices. On top of that comes the long-term uptrend line from the quarterly chart.
Natural gas forecast long term: a base at the 2025 low?
Click to enlargeThe monthly chart shows a stabilization around the previous year's low. In 2026 the 2025 low at $2.737 was undercut several times, but this did not lead to lasting lower prices. This may be the start of a base that could lead to further rising prices.
Karsten has marked the June high and the February high as resistance. They are at $3.403 and $3.604. The 2025 low at $2.737 and the 2026 low at $2.638 count as support.
Resistance
- $3.604
- $3.403
Support
- $2.737
- $2.638
Quarterly chart: price development since 2017
Click to enlargeThe quarterly chart shows the price development since 2017. Over the last three quarters the price has stabilized and recovered slightly. A long-term uptrend line is drawn in, running up from the 2024 low.
Natural gas forecast 2026 to 2028: what the EIA and Fitch expect
The EIA expects an average of $3.48 per MMBtu for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027. That is in the Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026 and applies to the spot price at Henry Hub, not to a future or CFD. For the fourth quarter of 2026 the EIA names $3.30. The next edition is due on 10 November.
| Source | Forecast | Period |
|---|---|---|
| EIA (STEO) | $3.48 / $3.16 per MMBtu | Annual average 2026 / 2027 |
| EIA (STEO) | $3.30 per MMBtu | Q4 2026 |
| Fitch Ratings | $3.50 / $3.25 / $3.00 per mcf | 2026 / 2027 / 2028 |
Forecasts of 6 October (EIA) and 23 September 2026 (Fitch, confirmed on 26 September); sources in the text.
Fitch expects falling prices until 2028. According to Trend, the rating agency assumes $3.50 for 2026, $3.25 for 2027 and $3.00 for 2028, all per mcf, that is per thousand cubic feet. This unit is not the same as MMBtu, so the values cannot be compared one to one with the chart. Fitch uses such assumptions for credit ratings, not as a trading forecast.
Third-party forecasts are assessments, not a trading recommendation. They depend on assumptions about weather, production and exports and are revised regularly. Karsten’s charts, in contrast, show the current situation: resistance at the February high, stabilization at the 2025 low.
Natural gas forecast 2030: what the EIA calculates
In the Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the Henry Hub spot price for 2030 is $4.48 per MMBtu. That is in 2025 dollars, so adjusted for inflation, in the standard case of the AEO 2026 of 8 April 2026. The EIA now calls this case the Counterfactual Baseline, a comparison scenario.
The EIA itself warns against reading this case as the most likely one. Its narrative says it should not be regarded as the most likely of the cases. In most of its scenarios, it expects rising prices into the early 2030s, with Henry Hub prices between $5 and $6 per MMBtu.
Wood Mackenzie sees the price heading towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035. According to its press release of 2 July 2026, the consultancy expects almost $5 per MMBtu in real terms by 2035. Over the past decade, nominal prices were mostly between $2 and $4. None of these values is a price target for the CFD.
Natural gas forecast 2040 and 2050
For 2040 the EIA names $5.36 and for 2050 $4.64 per MMBtu. Both values come from the same comparison scenario of the AEO 2026 and are in 2025 dollars. After 2040 the EIA expects falling spot prices while production keeps growing.
Over such periods there are only scenarios. We found no bank forecasts for 2040 or 2050 in the sources we checked. Anyone trading natural gas works with the levels from the chart, not with a number for 2050.
What is natural gas?
A natural gas forecast is a chart-based assessment of where the price of US natural gas may move in the coming days, weeks and years.
On the exchange, natural gas usually means the US gas price at Henry Hub in Louisiana, traded in US dollars per MMBtu.
MMBtu stands for one million British thermal units, an amount of energy. The most important futures contract is the Henry Hub future on NYMEX, part of CME Group.
The charts on this page show a CFD, not the future itself. The prices of a CFD can differ from those of the future. With the switch of instrument we use a different price series from earlier versions, which were based on the NG1! future: in it, the 2025 low is marked at $2.737, while the future series used before showed $2.622.
The US price is not the European gas price. In Europe the Dutch TTF is the benchmark, in euros per megawatt hour. Both markets are linked through liquefied natural gas (LNG), but they often move differently.
What moves the natural gas price
Natural gas storage is the stock the US builds up in summer and uses in winter; its level compared with the five-year average is one of the most important figures for the gas price.
US storage is slightly fuller than usual ahead of winter. According to the EIA, storage held 3,567 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on 9 October 2026, 45 Bcf more than the average of the past five years. For the end of October the EIA expects 3,850 Bcf, about 2 percent above the five-year average. Full storage tends to dampen prices, but a cold winter can draw it down quickly.
In winter, the weather decides demand. Colder forecasts for the US raise heating demand, milder ones lower it. That is why changed weather forecasts move the price before a single extra cubic foot is used.
US production keeps growing. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026, the EIA expects 112.2 billion cubic feet of dry gas per day for 2026 and 116.1 for 2027. More supply is one reason why it expects a lower price for 2027 than for 2026.
Liquefied natural gas links the US market with Europe and Asia. The US ships natural gas as LNG through export terminals. How much more it can export depends on the capacity of these plants; Fitch cites limited spare liquefaction capacity as a reason to keep its assumptions unchanged.
For the oil market, Karsten’s levels are in the crude oil price forecast. Both energy markets are read with the same method over several time frames.
How this forecast is made
The charts are my own, with Capital.com price data, from the daily to the quarterly chart. Each shows the highs and lows that matter for its horizon. How such levels work is explained in our guide to support and resistance. The charts were made with TradingView, and this page follows our editorial policy.
Conclusion: stabilization at the 2025 low, resistance at the February high
As an active trader since 1980, I see natural gas in a phase of stabilization. In 2026 the 2025 low at $2.737 was undercut several times without leading to lasting lower prices. A base may be starting here that could lead to further rising prices.
In the short term, the uptrend on the daily chart is correcting. Last week the market met resistance at the February high at $3.604 and closed just below the June high at $3.403. These two highs are the levels I am watching in the coming weeks.
Frequently asked questions
How will the natural gas price develop in the coming days?
On the daily chart an established uptrend is in place, and a correction is currently under way. At the weekly close on 16 October 2026, natural gas stood at $3.358, just below the June high at $3.403. In the trading week that ended on 16 October, the market met resistance at the February high at $3.604. That is no guarantee of direction.
Will the gas price keep rising?
Karsten considers a base possible that could lead to further rising prices. The 2025 low at $2.737 was undercut several times in 2026 without lasting lower prices following. Above the price lie the June high at $3.403 and the February high at $3.604. He currently names no signal level.
When is the weekly natural gas storage report released?
The EIA normally releases the storage report on Thursdays at 10:30 a.m. New York time, usually 4:30 p.m. in Germany (CEST in summer, CET in winter). On 29 October 2026 it is 3:30 p.m. CET because of the clock change. Because of US holidays it comes out on Friday, 13 November, and on Wednesday, 25 November, then at 6:00 p.m. CET.
How high will the natural gas price be in 2026 and 2027?
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026, the EIA expects an average Henry Hub spot price of $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027, per MMBtu. Fitch assumes $3.50 and $3.25, but per mcf. These are annual averages, not a trading range. Karsten’s charts show resistance at the February high at $3.604.
What is the natural gas forecast to 2030?
In the comparison scenario of the Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the Henry Hub spot price for 2030 is $4.48 per MMBtu, in 2025 dollars. The EIA itself says this case should not be regarded as the most likely one. Wood Mackenzie expects almost $5 by 2035, adjusted for inflation. These are not price targets for the CFD.
What is the difference between Henry Hub and TTF?
Henry Hub is the US benchmark price for natural gas, traded in US dollars per MMBtu. The TTF in the Netherlands is the European benchmark in euros per megawatt hour. Both are linked through liquefied natural gas but often move differently.
Please note
The scenarios are a personal assessment based on experience and are not a certainty. This is market analysis, not investment advice. Natural gas is a very volatile market: keep your position sizes in line with your own risk management.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.