Long-term natural gas forecasts at a glance
| Source |
Period |
Henry Hub per MMBtu |
| EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook |
2026 |
$3.43 |
| EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook |
2027 |
$3.28 |
| EIA AEO 2026, Counterfactual Baseline |
2030 |
$4.48 |
| Wood Mackenzie |
by 2035 |
about $5 |
| EIA AEO 2026, Counterfactual Baseline |
2040 |
$5.36 |
| EIA AEO 2026, Counterfactual Baseline |
2050 |
$4.64 |
Henry Hub forecasts at a glance. The EIA long-term values are counted in 2025
dollars, and Wood Mackenzie also adjusts for inflation. Sources: EIA Short-Term
Energy Outlook September 2026, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (April 2026),
Wood Mackenzie (July 2026).
Important for context: the values in the table are average prices and scenarios
for the Henry Hub spot price. They are not price targets for the natural gas
future traded today, or for the NG1! chart, which rolls continuously from the
expiring contract into the next one.
What is natural gas?
Natural gas is a fossil fuel made mostly of methane. Its US reference price at
Henry Hub is quoted in US dollars per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Natural gas forms when organic material breaks down under high pressure over
millions of years. Besides methane, it often contains other hydrocarbons such as
ethane, propane and butane.
Henry Hub is a pipeline hub in Louisiana. Its spot price serves worldwide as the
benchmark for the US natural gas market.
Natural gas futures (NG)
The natural gas future (NG) is a futures contract traded on the New York
Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) over 10,000 MMBtu of natural gas, with Henry Hub as
the reference price. These standardised contracts oblige the parties to buy or
sell a set amount of natural gas at a fixed price on a future date.
Each contract has its own delivery month and is traded on its own in the futures
market, so the futures price can differ from the current Henry Hub spot price.
Futures make it possible to trade large positions with relatively little
capital. They are very volatile, however, and can lead to heavy losses if the
market moves against your position.
Before every trade, it is worth looking at the forward curve: if later contracts
trade higher than the front month, this is called contango; in the opposite
case, backwardation.
The largest producing countries
| Country |
Production 2025 |
Share of the world |
| United States |
1,073.7 bcm |
25.6% |
| Russia |
609.4 bcm |
14.5% |
| Iran |
264.8 bcm |
6.3% |
| China |
264.1 bcm |
6.3% |
| Canada |
206.2 bcm |
4.9% |
The five largest natural gas producers in 2025, out of a world total of 4,196.5
billion cubic metres (bcm). Source: Energy Institute, Statistical Review of
World Energy 2026.
Current trends: LNG exports, AI data centres and storage
The natural gas market is currently shaped by two forces: LNG exports from the
US keep growing, and AI data centres add base load to power generation. Anyone
trading natural gas should also keep an eye on the events that move the market.
LNG (liquefied natural gas) is natural gas cooled to about minus 162 degrees
Celsius and liquefied, so it can be shipped worldwide by tanker.
The US Natural Gas Storage Report is the EIA’s weekly storage report and one of
the strongest short-term price drivers in the gas market. Storage reports show
how full the stores currently are. Because the US is one of the biggest players
in the gas market, this report can cause strong market moves in the short term.
5 factors that move the natural gas price
1. Geopolitical events
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts in gas-producing regions often disrupt
supply and lead to higher prices. The conflict in Ukraine is a prominent
example. It not only put gas deliveries from Russia to Europe at risk, but also
affected prices worldwide. Tensions in the Middle East, another key region for
gas production, often add uncertainty and price swings.
Trade sanctions against certain countries can also strongly affect the export
and import of natural gas. The sanctions against Russia after the start of the
Ukraine conflict, for example, forced European countries to look for other
suppliers, which led to temporary shortages and rising prices.
2. Supply and demand
The balance between supply and demand drives the gas price more than any other
factor. Low storage levels point to tight supply and push prices up; high
storage levels push them down. The weekly US Natural Gas Storage Report from the
EIA shows the current situation.
Economic growth and demand: China and India are among the most important Asian
gas markets in the long run, but demand there does not develop evenly. In 2025,
gas consumption rose in China while it fell in India. Both countries use natural
gas as an energy source for industry and cities, but they react strongly to the
price of imported liquefied natural gas.
AI data centres as a new source of demand: the power needs of AI data centres
are becoming the most important new source of demand for US natural gas,
alongside LNG exports. How large the effect can become is shown by the Wood
Mackenzie forecast in the section on 2030. Many data centres rely on their own
gas power plants to avoid bottlenecks in the power grid.
Seasonal swings: extreme weather also has a big effect on demand. Cold winters
increase the need for heating, hot summers the need for air conditioning. The
cold winter of 2020/2021 in Europe, for example, led to a sharp drop in storage
levels and a rise in prices.
The energy markets are closely connected, so the
crude oil forecast belongs
alongside this page.
3. Environmental policy and regulation
Policies to cut CO2 emissions and the switch to renewable energy have a big
influence on the demand for natural gas. In many countries, natural gas is seen
as a bridge technology: it is cleaner than coal and serves as a transition on
the way to a carbon-neutral energy supply.
Stricter environmental and emission rules can, however, raise production costs,
especially in countries with high emission taxes or strict environmental
standards. The EU rules to reduce methane emissions are a current example: they
raise costs for gas producers and so affect end-consumer prices.
4. Technological developments
Advances in extraction technology, especially fracking, have clearly increased
the supply of natural gas in recent years. The US leads the way: with fracking,
it has increased its gas production massively and is today the largest exporter
of liquefied natural gas.
Better technology for storing and transporting natural gas also plays a role.
LNG export terminals and pipelines make gas supply more flexible and reliable.
New LNG export terminals in the US, for example, allow gas to be exported to
Europe and Asia at competitive prices.
5. US dollar exchange rates
Because natural gas is often traded in US dollars, exchange-rate swings can have
a big effect on prices in other currencies. A strong US dollar makes gas imports
more expensive for countries whose currencies are weaker against the dollar.
This can raise import costs considerably for European and Asian countries.
Exchange-rate swings can also affect the profitability of exports. For American
gas producers, a strong dollar can reduce competitiveness on the international
market, while a weak dollar makes exports more attractive. For the large
producers, the oil and gas businesses are closely linked.
How this forecast is made
This page contains the regularly updated technical analysis of Karsten Kagels on
the daily, weekly and yearly charts, together with the most important price
drivers and long-term outlooks. It follows our
editorial policy.
The forecast mainly uses technical analysis tools: support and resistance at
earlier yearly and monthly highs and lows, trend lines, and moving averages over
20, 50, 100 and 200 periods. Fundamental factors are added as a complement. The
charts show the front-month natural gas future on NYMEX (NG1! on TradingView),
priced in US dollars per MMBtu. This page means the US future at Henry Hub, not
the European TTF gas price.
Frequently asked questions about the natural gas forecast
When will natural gas rise again?
Nobody knows for sure. Technically, the decisive level right now is the support
at last year’s low of $2.622. If it holds and the price breaks above the
short-term downward trend line, a move towards the July high at $3.355 is
possible. Seasonally, demand usually picks up from autumn, when the market
prices in the winter contracts.
What affects natural gas prices?
Natural gas prices are driven by supply and demand, weather, storage levels,
political events and LNG exports. A new factor is the growing power demand of AI
data centres.
For the natural gas forecast we mainly use technical analysis tools: support and
resistance at earlier yearly and monthly highs and lows, trend lines, and moving
averages over 20, 50, 100 and 200 periods. Fundamental factors are added as a
complement.
What is the natural gas forecast to 2030?
In the Counterfactual Baseline of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the
Henry Hub spot price stands at about $4.48 per MMBtu in 2030, counted in 2025
dollars. That is a scenario, not a price target. Wood Mackenzie sees the price
heading towards $5 by 2035. The drivers are LNG exports and the power demand of
AI data centres.
When is the weekly natural gas storage report published?
The EIA publishes the US Natural Gas Storage Report every Thursday at 10:30 am
New York time, which is usually 16:30 in central Europe. It shows how US storage
levels have changed against the previous week. If the number differs clearly
from what the market expected, the natural gas future often reacts immediately
with sharp swings. If the Thursday falls on a US holiday, the date moves. The
next report is due on 24 September 2026.
Does natural gas still have a future?
Yes. The EIA expects US production to keep growing to 2050 and LNG exports to
rise; in its Counterfactual Baseline, the Henry Hub spot price stands at $4.64
per MMBtu in 2050. How strongly demand grows after that is decided by the pace
of the energy transition. As a bridge technology, natural gas stays relevant for
years.
Please note
The scenarios are a personal assessment based on experience and are not a
certainty. This is market analysis, not investment advice. Natural gas is a very
volatile market: keep your position sizes in line with your own risk management.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.
