USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Outlook
This analysis is from 24 October 2026. Prices have moved since, so the levels below may no longer apply until the next update.
USD/CAD has corrected from the 2026 high to the 2022 high in two weeks. There the pair meets a 61.8 percent retracement of the last big upswing, and after a slight recovery it closed the week at 1.4001. The long-term uptrend remains intact, and on 28 October the Bank of Canada and the Fed decide on the same day.
USD/CAD forecast in 30 seconds
Today
Weekly close at 1.4001 on Friday, 23 October 2026. From the 2026 high at 1.4300 the pair fell to the 2022 high at 1.3978 and recovered slightly from Friday's low.
Medium term
Two weeks of decline. The weekly low briefly broke below the low of the week of 21 September.
Long term
The uptrend is intact. So far, however, October looks like a reversal candle near the support just below 1.40.
Very long term
Between 1.44 and 1.48 lies a strong resistance zone. It holds the 1986 high at 1.4420 and the 2025 high at 1.4793.
On this page
- USD/CAD forecast in 30 seconds
- USD/CAD forecast, short term: a correction to the 2022 high
- USD/CAD forecast, medium term: two weeks of decline
- USD/CAD forecast, long term: a reversal candle in October
- Quarterly chart: the correction in the big picture
- USD/CAD forecast, super long term: the resistance zone 1.44 to 1.48
- Three scenarios: which level decides
- What can move USD/CAD next
- How this forecast is made
- Conclusion: assessment by Karsten Kagels
- Frequently asked questions
- Please note
USD/CAD forecast, short term: a correction to the 2022 high
Click to enlargeAll charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels, with FXCM prices. USD/CAD shows how many Canadian dollars one US dollar buys. The charts were exported on Saturday, 24 October 2026, between 15:36 and 15:47 CEST, after Friday's close. All five therefore show the same weekly close of 1.4001.
Starting from the 2026 high at 1.4300, USD/CAD has corrected over the last two weeks. The market has fallen back to the 2022 high at 1.3978. The daily chart above also shows a 61.8 percent retracement of the last big upswing, which began in early September. This Fibonacci retracement level measures how much of the previous rise the counter-move has given back.
From Friday's low, the pair recovered slightly into the close. Friday's open was 1.4007, its high 1.4019 and Friday's low 1.3968. After the slight recovery from the low, USD/CAD closed at 1.4001, just above the 2022 high again. Below, a further orange line is drawn at 1.3899. The levels come from Karsten's charts; the roles of single uncommented lines are an editorial classification.
Resistance
- 1.4300
Price at analysis1.4001
Support
- 1.3978
- 1.3967
USD/CAD forecast, medium term: two weeks of decline
Click to enlargeThe weekly chart shows the bigger picture, including the two-week decline. Last week's open was 1.4105, the weekly high 1.4134 and the low 1.3968. It closed at 1.4001.
With this week's low, the low of the week of 21 September was briefly broken. At the weekly close, USD/CAD was just above the 2022 high again.
Resistance
- 1.4300
Support
- 1.3978
USD/CAD forecast, long term: a reversal candle in October
Click to enlargeOn the monthly chart we see the 2022 high and the support just below 1.40. The 2022 high is at 1.3978, a further level at 1.3967. Just above, 1.4004 and 1.4015 are drawn. In principle, USD/CAD is in a long-term uptrend.
So far, October looks like a reversal candle and trades near the monthly low. It opened at 1.4231, rose to the 2026 high at 1.4300 and fell to 1.3968. At 1.4001 the pair is 1.62 percent below the open. So October reached a new yearly high but now trades below its open and near its low so far, which is why it counts as a possible reversal candle. Its final shape will only be known at the monthly close on 30 October.
Resistance
- 1.4300
Support
- 1.3978
- 1.3967
Quarterly chart: the correction in the big picture
Click to enlargeThe quarterly chart places the correction of the current quarter in the whole chart picture. It shows the quarters since 2016. The fourth quarter began on 1 October, so its figures so far match October's: open 1.4231, high 1.4300, low 1.3968. The highest price peak of recent years remains the 2025 high at 1.4793.
Resistance
- 1.4793
- 1.4300
Support
- 1.3978
- 1.3967
USD/CAD forecast, super long term: the resistance zone 1.44 to 1.48
Click to enlargeOn the yearly chart, the 1986 high at 1.4420 stands out. It lies a little below the price peaks of recent years, which reach up to the 2025 high at 1.4793. The whole area between 1.44 and 1.48 can therefore be seen as strong resistance.
In principle, however, we are looking at an uptrend. From a long-term perspective, the US dollar could therefore rise further. USD/CAD opened 2026 at 1.3721, fell to the 2026 low at 1.3481 and rose to the 2026 high at 1.4300 in October. At 1.4001 the pair is 2.04 percent above the 2026 open; the 1986 high is still 419 pips away.
Resistance
- 1.4793
- 1.4420
Support
- 1.3978
- 1.3721
- 1.3539
- 1.3481
Three scenarios: which level decides
After the correction, USD/CAD stands at the support just below 1.40; the next move is open. The price levels come from Karsten's charts; the scenarios are an editorial guide. These are reference levels, not order rules.
Bullish: above the levels just above 1.40
Applies if the support zone just below 1.40 holds and Friday's recovery extends beyond the levels at 1.4004 and 1.4015. Then the slight recovery becomes a move out of the current range. The next level above is the 2026 high at 1.4300.
Wait: moving around 1.40
Applies as long as the pair moves between Friday's low at 1.3968 and the level at 1.4015. Then the direction within the current range is still open. A recovery inside this range is not yet a breakout. The rate decisions on 28 October and the dates below are the next reasons to read the chart again.
Bearish: below the zone just below 1.40
Applies if USD/CAD falls below Friday's low at 1.3968 and the level at 1.3967. Then the next orange line at 1.3899 comes into view. Karsten still rates the long-term uptrend as intact.
Resistance
- 1.4300
Support
- 1.3978
- 1.3967
What can move USD/CAD next
Six events are coming up in the next few weeks. They are reasons to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction. On 28 October both central banks decide on the same day, and on 6 November both countries publish their jobs reports. New tariffs and changes in trade relations can also move USD/CAD outside these fixed dates. Times are given in Eastern Time, with central European time in brackets.
- 28 October, 9:45 a.m. ET (14:45 CET): Bank of Canada rate decision with a new Monetary Policy Report (BoC events)
- 28 October, 2:00 p.m. ET (19:00 CET): Fed rate decision after the meeting of 27 and 28 October (Fed October calendar)
- 30 October, 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 CET): Canadian GDP for August (Statistics Canada)
- 6 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (14:30 CET): October jobs reports from Canada and the United States (BLS schedule)
- 10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (14:30 CET): US consumer prices for October (BLS CPI schedule)
- 16 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (14:30 CET): Canadian consumer prices for October (Statistics Canada CPI)
US interest rates are higher than Canadian rates. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September 2026. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 percent since 30 October 2025 and confirmed it for the seventh time in a row on 2 September 2026. Against the middle of the Fed range, the gap is about 1.6 percentage points. More in our articles on the Bank of Canada rate decision and the Fed rate decision.
Ahead of the rate decision, Canadian inflation is just above the Bank of Canada’s target range. In September, consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent after 3.0 percent in August; the target range runs from 1 to 3 percent. Excluding gasoline, the rate was 2.2 percent, while gasoline cost 27.8 percent more than a year earlier.
The Canadian dollar is seen as a commodity currency. Canada is the largest oil supplier to the United States. A rising oil price therefore tends to support the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD down. For oil itself, see our crude oil price forecast. The Australian dollar is also linked to commodity prices, see the AUD/USD forecast.
How this forecast is made
The charts are my own, with FXCM price data, from the daily to the yearly chart. Each shows the trend lines and the highs and lows that matter for its horizon. How such levels work is explained in our guide to support and resistance. The charts were made with TradingView, and this page follows our editorial policy. How the same dollar trades against a safe haven is shown in the USD/CHF forecast.
Conclusion: assessment by Karsten Kagels
As an active trader since 1980, I still see USD/CAD in a long-term uptrend. The technical reaction I considered possible after the rally has come: in two weeks the pair fell from the 2026 high to the 2022 high and the 61.8 percent retracement.
My assessment for the coming weeks: on the monthly chart, October so far looks like a reversal candle near the monthly low, with the support just below 1.40 beneath it. In the long run, the US dollar could still rise further, and the area between 1.44 and 1.48 remains strong resistance.
Frequently asked questions
What is the USD/CAD forecast for 2026?
On the chart, the long-term picture points up. On the monthly chart, USD/CAD is in principle in an uptrend. In October the pair corrected from the 2026 high to the support just below 1.40. Above, Karsten sees a strong resistance zone between 1.44 and 1.48 with the 1986 high at 1.4420.
Will the Canadian dollar get stronger or weaker?
In the short term, the Canadian dollar has recently gained. When USD/CAD rises, the US dollar gains and the Canadian dollar loses. Over the last two weeks USD/CAD fell, so the Canadian dollar became stronger. Over the long term, the uptrend points to a stronger US dollar; the resistance zone between 1.44 and 1.48 can slow it down.
How high are the policy rates in the United States and Canada?
The Fed’s policy rate is higher. It raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September 2026. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 percent since 30 October 2025. Both central banks announce their next decisions on 28 October 2026.
What role does the oil price play for USD/CAD?
Canada is the largest oil supplier to the United States. A high oil price brings export revenue into the country and tends to strengthen the Canadian dollar, so USD/CAD tends to fall. This link is why the Canadian dollar counts as a commodity currency.
Please note
The conclusion is my personal assessment based on experience; the three scenarios are reference levels. Both summarize possible price developments and are not a certainty. This is market analysis, not investment advice. Keep your position sizes in line with your own risk management.
This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.
How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.