Kagels Trading

Nasdaq 100 forecast · NDX

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Today, This Week and Beyond (NDX)

Nasdaq 100 forecast for today, this week and the long term to 2050. NDX chart analysis with named support and resistance levels on four time frames.

Updated at 29,644 points
By Karsten Kagels, reviewed by Christian Möhrer

Right now

29,644 points at the close on 18 September 2026. The all-time high stands at 30,762 points, reached on 3 June 2026.

Short term

The index tested its uptrend line last week and bounced off it. I expect rising prices from here in principle.

Next resistance

The open gap between 29,753 and 29,972, then the downtrend line from the all-time high, the August high at 30,196 and the all-time high at 30,762.

Key support

The uptrend line, the 20, 50 and 100-day averages between 29,302 and 29,176, below that the September low at 28,753 and the August low at 28,197.

Medium term (weekly chart)

Price is running into the tip of a triangle. After the uptrend that came before it, a move towards the all-time high is possible.

Long term (monthly chart)

The trend channel since the April 2025 low is intact. The consolidation that started in June is not finished yet.

Long term (2030 to 2050)

Extending my trend channel gives roughly 34,000 to 75,000 points for 2030, about 180,000 to 400,000 for 2040 and around one to just over two million for 2050. These are conditional chart projections, not firm price targets, and prices can end up well below them.

Method

Technical analysis, read top-down: yearly, monthly, weekly and daily chart.

Nasdaq 100 forecast for today, tomorrow and this week

Week of 14 September 2026

On the daily chart the Nasdaq 100 sits between two trend lines. From below, the uptrend line supports it, starting at the yearly low of 22,841 points from 30 March. From above, the downtrend line pushes down, running from the all-time high of 30,762 points on 3 June.

Last week the index tested the uptrend line. On 16 September it fell to 28,753 points and turned up at the line. By Friday it had risen to 29,644 points and is back above all moving averages. That is why I expect rising prices in principle.

The first target on the upside is the open gap from 18 August. A gap is a jump in the chart. On that Tuesday the index opened below the previous day's low of 29,972 points. Price has already run into the lower part of the gap on 28 August, so what is still open is the area between 29,753 and 29,972 points. Right behind it waits the downtrend line from the all-time high.

Above that lie the August high and the all-time high. The August high of 30,196 points from 17 August is the last peak before the gap. Only above the all-time high at 30,762 points would the way to new records be clear.

On the downside three levels offer support. First the uptrend line itself, then the September low at 28,753 and the August low at 28,197 points. The August low from 3 August sits almost exactly on the low of 9 June at 28,196.90 points. The market has therefore already turned up at this level twice.

The cluster of moving averages can catch price as well. A moving average is the average closing price of the last 20, 50 or 100 trading days. These three are currently close together between 29,176 and 29,302 points, just below price. When several averages sit this close, it is called a cluster. The 200-day average runs much lower at 27,230 points.

A short look back: in March the Nasdaq 100 fell below all moving averages and marked its yearly low at 22,841 points on 30 March. From there it ran to the all-time high on 3 June in a good two months, a gain of almost 35 percent. Since then the index has moved sideways. The lowest low of that phase was 27,176 points on 29 July, right at the uptrend line.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart with the uptrend line, the downtrend line from the all-time high, the open gap and support at 28,753 and 28,197Click to enlarge
Nasdaq 100 (NDX), daily chart, 19 September 2026 at 17:08 CEST, showing the close of 18 September (TradingView, chart by Karsten Kagels). Price sits above the tested uptrend line, with the open gap from 18 August and the downtrend line from the all-time high above it. The month labels on the axis are German: Mrz = March, Mai = May, Okt = October.

Resistance

  • 30,762
  • 30,196
  • 29,972

Price at analysis29,644

Support

  • 29,176
  • 28,753
  • 28,197

Nasdaq 100 forecast: the weekly chart

On the weekly chart the Nasdaq 100 is running into the tip of a triangle. The upper side is the downtrend line from the all-time high in June, the lower side the uptrend line from the yearly low in March. Both lines run towards each other, and the room for price gets smaller with every week.

Price has to break out of a triangle at some point, and the direction before it counts. The tighter the tip gets, the closer the moment when price leaves one of the two lines. Before the triangle the trend ran clearly upwards, from the March low at 22,841 to the all-time high at 30,762 points. That is why I consider a move towards the all-time high possible.

The levels on the weekly chart frame the triangle. On the upside the August high at 30,196 and the all-time high at 30,762 points are the resistances. On the downside the September low at 28,753, the August low at 28,197 and the July low at 27,176 points give support. The July low is the lowest point of the whole sideways phase since June.

The 20-week average sits directly below price at 29,376 points, the 50-week average much lower at 26,875. Both are rising, so the medium-term uptrend is intact.

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart with the triangle formed by the downtrend line from the all-time high and the uptrend line from the March lowClick to enlarge
Nasdaq 100 (NDX), weekly chart, 19 September 2026 at 17:28 CEST (TradingView, chart by Karsten Kagels). The triangle runs between the downtrend line from the all-time high and the uptrend line from the March low, with the levels from 27,176 to 30,762.

Resistance

  • 30,762
  • 30,196

Support

  • 28,753
  • 28,197
  • 27,176

Nasdaq 100 on the monthly chart: the trend channel since April 2025

The monthly chart shows the long-term direction, and that direction is up. Since the low of 16,542 points on 7 April 2025, the Nasdaq 100 has been running in a rising trend channel. Up to the all-time high on 3 June 2026 it gained about 86 percent in barely 14 months. The long-term picture is clearly bullish.

The chart uses a logarithmic scale. On a normal, linear scale every distance of 1,000 points is the same size. On a logarithmic scale the same distance stands for the same percentage change instead: the step from 15,000 to 16,500 points is as tall as the one from 30,000 to 33,000, because both are 10 percent. Over long periods that is the more honest picture, because 1,000 points mean more at a level of 15,000 than at 30,000.

A trend channel consists of two parallel lines. The lower one connects the rising lows, the upper one runs above it at the same angle. As long as price stays between the two lines, the trend is intact. The Nasdaq 100 has not left this channel since April 2025.

Since the all-time high in June the index has been consolidating. A consolidation is a breather in which price moves sideways instead of rising further. This phase is not finished yet, but it can be the base for a new push higher.

There are two levels in the way on the upside and several holding points below. The resistances are the August high at 30,196 and the all-time high at 30,762 points. Below follow the September low at 28,753, the August low at 28,197 and the July low at 27,176 points. Right at the bottom lies the April 2025 low at 16,542 points, where the channel begins.

The moving averages sit far below price. The 20-month average stands at 25,065 points, the 50-month average at 19,670. Price is therefore a long way from these long-term averages.

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart with the rising trend channel since the April 2025 low at 16,542 points, on a logarithmic scaleClick to enlarge
Nasdaq 100 (NDX), monthly chart, logarithmic, 19 September 2026 at 17:20 CEST (TradingView, chart by Karsten Kagels). The trend channel starts at the April 2025 low, and inside it runs the consolidation since the all-time high with the levels from 27,176 to 30,762.

Resistance

  • 30,762
  • 30,196

Support

  • 28,753
  • 28,197
  • 27,176
  • 16,542

Nasdaq 100 long-term forecast: 2030, 2040 and 2050

On the yearly chart the Nasdaq 100 has been running in a rising trend channel since the financial crisis. The channel starts at the lows of 2008 and 2009. In November 2008 the index fell to 1,019 points; on 3 June 2026 it reached its all-time high at 30,762 points. That is about thirty times as much. Even the slump of 2022, with its low at 10,441 points, did not leave this channel.

This chart is on a logarithmic scale as well. An index that has risen from around 1,000 to more than 30,000 points can hardly be shown any other way. On a linear scale the rise up to about 2010 would look almost flat, although the index swung strongly back then too. The logarithmic scale shows equal percentage steps as equal distances, as explained on the monthly chart above.

If this growth path continues, I expect around one million points for 2050. For that I extended the trend channel beyond the year 2050; the orange vertical lines mark 2030, 2040 and 2050. The lower edge of the channel sits at about one million points in 2050. This extension describes a scenario, not a minimum. Going from 29,644.17 points on 18 September 2026 to the end of 2050 would need about 15.6 percent price growth per year.

Over the past 20 years the Nasdaq 100 rose by about 14.6 percent a year. From the end of 2005 to the end of 2025 the pure price index, without dividends, climbed from 1,645.20 to 25,249.85 points, which is the average annual gain including compounding. Three calendar years ended in the red: 2008 with 41.9 percent, 2018 with 1.0 percent and 2022 with 33.0 percent. That record limits neither future losses nor drawdowns along the way. The calculation examples below all start at 29,644.17 points on 18 September 2026 and assume a steady 14.6 percent a year up to the end of each year. That is an assumption for the arithmetic, not an expected return.

Nasdaq 100 forecast 2030. At the 2030 marker my extended trend channel runs from roughly 34,000 to 75,000 points. The values are read off the chart and rounded. The separate calculation example at 14.6 percent a year gives about 53,000 points by the end of 2030, roughly the middle of the channel. A slump can take the index below the lower edge of the channel as well, so the range is not a reliable corridor for what happens next.

Nasdaq 100 forecast 2040. In 2040 the trend channel lies between about 180,000 and 400,000 points. The calculation example at 14.6 percent a year gives about 208,000 points by the end of 2040 and lands in the lower half of the channel. This range also assumes that the growth path holds. Over 14 years the compounding effect is strong: every year the index grows on a higher base. That is the continuation of the pace so far, not a guarantee.

Nasdaq 100 forecast 2050. At the 2050 marker my extended trend channel runs from about one million to a good two million points. This range assumes that the drawn growth path holds for decades. The separate calculation example at 14.6 percent a year gives about 811,000 points by the end of 2050. Even small changes in the growth rate lead to large differences over this period. The index can leave the channel and stay well below these values for many years. The April 2025 low at 16,542 points is a historical reference mark on the monthly chart, not a limit below which the risk of loss would be small.

Nasdaq 100 yearly chart with the trend channel since the financial crisis, extended beyond 2050, on a logarithmic scaleClick to enlarge
Nasdaq 100 (NDX), yearly chart, logarithmic, 19 September 2026 at 17:35 CEST (TradingView, chart by Karsten Kagels). The trend channel since the financial crisis is extended beyond 2050; the orange lines mark the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. The 2026 bar opened at 25,524 and has run between 22,841 and 30,762 so far.

Bull case and bear case for the Nasdaq 100

The current chart situation allows two clearly separated scenarios, both tied to specific price levels.

Bullish scenario

As long as the Nasdaq 100 stays above the uptrend line and the September low at 28,753 points, I expect rising prices. First I expect the run into the open gap between 29,753 and 29,972 points. If the index then clears the downtrend line, the August high at 30,196 and the all-time high at 30,762 points are the next targets.

Bearish scenario

A break of the uptrend line or of the September low at 28,753 points would weaken the short-term bullish view. As long as the August low at 28,197 points holds, however, the deeper correction described here is not confirmed. It gets critical below the August low at 28,197 points. The uptrend line would then be broken, and the sideways phase since June could turn into a deeper correction. Below that, the 200-day average at 27,230 and the July low at 27,176 points sit close together. Triggers could be further rate rises by the Fed, weak numbers from the big tech companies or new trade conflicts.

What is the Nasdaq 100?

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock index covering 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq that meet the index’s listing and selection rules, weighted by a modified market capitalisation.

The NDX, to use its official ticker, was launched on 31 January 1985 and counts as the most important gauge of the US technology sector. Unlike the broader Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100 deliberately excludes financial companies and concentrates on technology, communications and biotechnology names. Nasdaq publishes the admission rules and the current composition on its official index page for the Nasdaq-100.

The index composition is reviewed once a year and the weighting is adjusted quarterly. As an approximation for the weighting, the fund positions of the iShares NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (DE) from 17 September 2026 are used here: the five companies NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Micron together came to 33.32 percent of fund assets, with both share classes of Alphabet counted together. ETF weights and index weights can differ. A few market movers therefore largely determine the direction of the whole index, which has to be kept in mind when reading the chart analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 forecast is a technical assessment of the future price development of the US technology index NDX, based on chart analysis, moving averages and support and resistance zones.

What moves the Nasdaq 100

The price of the Nasdaq 100 is driven by several factors that go beyond pure chart analysis. For traders it is worth knowing these drivers, because they are often what triggers moves at the support and resistance zones identified above.

Around the big expiry day, short-term moves can get stronger. On the big expiry day, futures and options expire at the same time and institutional investors adjust their index positions. Higher swings are not guaranteed by it, though. The last one was on 18 September 2026, the next follows on 18 December 2026.

Federal Reserve rate policy

The Fed raised its key rate on 16 September 2026. It lifted it by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first rise since July 2023. Higher rates weigh above all on growth stocks, because future profits are then discounted more heavily. The Nasdaq 100 still closed practically unchanged that day and turned during the session exactly at its uptrend line. Where rates go from here is covered in our Fed interest rate decision post.

Artificial intelligence and tech earnings

The AI boom has been a major price driver in the Nasdaq 100 since 2023. Companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft and Alphabet benefit disproportionately from rising demand for AI infrastructure. The quarterly numbers of these heavyweights move the whole index. Disappointing earnings from a single market mover can trigger corrections of several percent in the short term.

The build-out of AI data centres also drives industrial metals. Alongside tech stocks, demand for copper benefits in particular. Our copper forecast looks at this growing source of demand.

Geopolitics and trade policy

Tariff disputes, export restrictions on semiconductors and geopolitical tensions directly affect the supply chains of the technology companies in the Nasdaq 100. Traders should keep a close eye on the economic calendar, above all on tariff announcements and trade agreements.

The most important Nasdaq 100 stocks

Five companies together account for about a third of fund assets. The percentages below are portfolio weights of the iShares NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (DE) from 17 September 2026. The five largest companies in the fund come to 33.32 percent together, with Alphabet represented by two share classes:

Amazon only follows in sixth place. It comes to 4.31 percent, behind it AMD with 3.91 percent. The quarterly numbers of these heavyweights often move the whole index by several hundred points, so their dates belong in every look at the Nasdaq 100 chart analysis.

SpaceX is new in the index. SpaceX has been listed on Nasdaq since 12 June 2026 and was added to the Nasdaq 100 with effect from 7 July 2026. In the iShares ETF named above, its portfolio weight was 1.31 percent on 17 September.

How this forecast is made

The basis of the Nasdaq 100 forecast is technical analysis, read top-down. I analyse the NDX chart from the higher time frames (yearly, monthly and weekly chart) down to the daily chart. That is how I find the price areas where supply or demand could come into the market.

These are the tools involved:

The forecast is updated regularly and takes account of upcoming economic dates where higher volatility can be expected. All price targets named are probability scenarios, not guarantees.

The Nasdaq 100 runs closely with the broad US market. It is therefore worth looking at the S&P 500 forecast alongside it for the full picture.

While the Nasdaq 100 is driven more strongly by technology stocks, the Dow Jones forecast reflects the broader industrial base of the US economy. Comparing the two indices helps to put things in context.

More forecasts from our team are in the forecast overview.

Conclusion: the Nasdaq 100 forecast stays bullish

The uptrend in the Nasdaq 100 is intact. Last week the index tested its uptrend line and turned up. As long as that line and the September low at 28,753 points hold, I expect rising prices.

On the upside the index has to clear several hurdles. First the open gap from 18 August, then the downtrend line from the all-time high, the August high at 30,196 and finally the all-time high at 30,762 points. As a discretionary price action trader, what I watch above all is how price reacts at these levels.

Use the levels as orientation, not as a guarantee. Set your stop so that it fits your risk management, and size your position accordingly. I update this forecast regularly with new charts.

Frequently asked questions about the Nasdaq 100 forecast

What is the current Nasdaq 100 forecast?

The current Nasdaq 100 forecast is bullish. In mid-September 2026 the index tested its uptrend line and closed at 29,644 points on 18 September. The next resistances are the open gap between 29,753 and 29,972 points, then the downtrend line from the all-time high, the August high at 30,196 and the all-time high at 30,762. Support comes from the uptrend line, the September low at 28,753 and the August low at 28,197 points.

Will the Nasdaq 100 rise in 2026?

The chart picture argues for a continuation of the uptrend. On the weekly chart the index is running into the tip of a triangle, and because the trend before it ran upwards, a breakout towards the all-time high at 30,762 points is possible. Below the August low at 28,197 points, by contrast, the uptrend line would be broken.

Which factors influence the Nasdaq 100?

The most important drivers are Federal Reserve rate policy, the quarterly results of the large tech companies (NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft in particular), the AI boom, and geopolitical trade disputes and export restrictions.

What is the difference between NASDAQ and NASDAQ-100?

Nasdaq is the exchange, the Nasdaq 100 one of its stock indices. The Nasdaq Composite covers the shares of many Nasdaq companies that qualify under its rules, including financial companies. The Nasdaq 100 concentrates on 100 of the largest qualifying companies outside the financial sector. Selection rules and weighting caps mean it is not a list of the 100 largest stocks re-sorted every day.

How high can the Nasdaq 100 rise by 2030?

My extended yearly chart shows a range of roughly 34,000 to 75,000 points for 2030. It assumes that the drawn growth path holds. A separate calculation example with an annual return of 14.6 percent gives about 53,000 points by the end of 2030, starting from 29,644.17 points on 18 September 2026. Both are conditional scenarios, and actual prices can end up well below the channel range.

Which stocks carry the most weight in the Nasdaq 100?

The fund positions of the iShares NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (DE) from 17 September 2026 give an idea: NVIDIA 8.46 percent, Apple 7.89 percent, Alphabet 6.22 percent counting both share classes, Microsoft 5.90 percent and Micron 4.85 percent. Together that is 33.32 percent of fund assets. These ETF weights can differ from the official index weights.

Please note

The scenarios are a personal assessment based on experience and are not a certainty. This is market analysis, not investment advice. Trade only with a position size that fits your own risk management.

This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.

How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.

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