S&P 500 Forecast: Today, This Week, 2027 and 2030 (SPX)

All charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels. The charts up to the half-year chart show the S&P 500 as SPX500 from Capital.com on TradingView; the yearly chart shows, as a historical classification, the index SPX since 1871. All prices are chart readings. The weekly, daily and 4-hour charts are from Wednesday morning, 4 November 2026, between 07:48 and 07:54 CET; the monthly, half-year and yearly charts are from 1 November 2026.

The 4-hour chart shows the sideways drift. The grey area shows the broad sideways phase since early August between the 2026 high at 7,844 points and the September low at 7,507. The price briefly fell below it early on Wednesday and returned.

There was clear pressure on the lower limit in off-exchange trading. The price marked a new weekly low at 7,462 points. The counter-move led it back into the range, and it currently stands at 7,548 points.

Whether a stabilization forms at the September low is still open. If it succeeds, the index holds the trading range. With a break of the level, the target lies in the area of 7,300 points.

The daily chart is finer and shows the wedge in detail. The red upper line runs over the local highs, the green lower line over the local lows. Both rise and run toward each other. The grey support line, which halves the wedge, is broken.

The daily bar fell below the September low in off-exchange trading. It opened at 7,579 points, reached 7,605, fell to 7,462 and now stands at 7,552.

The signal situation stays negative. During the session the September low was undercut. The return into the range decides whether it stays with this excursion.

How the tech stocks are doing is part of the picture. The cross check comes from the Nasdaq 100 forecast, the price-weighted comparison from the Dow Jones forecast.

The weekly chart shows the current week with an excursion below the September low. The grey support line split the wedge of the red and green line in half. The red line joins the local highs since early 2025, the green line the local lows, starting at the April 2025 low.

The grey line stays broken, and the weekly bar shows downward pressure. The week opened at 7,604 points, recovered to 7,662 and fell to 7,462. It currently stands at 7,548.

The September low could still support. It is at 7,507 points, and the weekly low reaches 45 points below it. A break would, as described, aim at the zone of 7,250 to 7,300 points, where the lower green trend line runs.

Three levels put the situation in order. The chart shows them as yellow dashed lines and as a white line.

7,844, the 2026 high: the highest level of the year. Above it there is only the red wedge line.

7,507, the September low (white line): where the September pullback turned.

6,944, the 2025 high: below the green wedge line the next level, far below the price.

The monthly chart forms a rising wedge. The red line runs over the local highs, the green line over the local lows of the price path. The green line starts at the April 2025 low and touches the March 2026 low at 6,312. Since the low in October 2022 at 3,491.58 points the index has more than doubled.

October did not follow up on the momentum despite the new all-time high. The month marked a new high at 7,844 points, fell to 7,527 and closed at 7,583 points, near the low. It opened at 7,660.

The price keeps moving sideways in the range of August and September. August forms an outside bar in which the price path takes place; only the October high pokes just above it. The monthly low is only 20 points above the September low.

The price is pressing toward the September low. A break of the level at 7,507 should aim toward the green support line in the zone of 7,250 to 7,300 points. If the stabilization continues, the sideways phase remains for now.

Since the start of the year the S&P 500 is up about 10 percent. The year 2025 ended at 6,845.50 points. In March the index fell to 6,312, then the rally followed, and in early October the index set a new all-time high at 7,844 points. For the close of 2026 the uptrend stays the basis: in the second half the price has come back below the half-year high at 7,621, and the outlook stays stable as long as the September low at 7,507 holds.

The published year-end targets of the banks are still far apart. Bank of America raised its target for the end of 2026 in September from 7,100 to 7,400 points. Citigroup names 8,100 points, and so does HSBC after raising it from 7,650. Against the close of 29 September this selection spans about minus 3.5 to plus 5.6 percent.

The earnings season delivers strong numbers, but also includes one-off effects. FactSet reports for the second quarter of 2026, as of 25 September, that 86 percent of companies beat earnings estimates and that earnings growth reached 52.2 percent year over year. Large gains on investments and valuations at Alphabet and Amazon lifted that rate. It should not be read as equally strong growth in the ongoing business of all companies.

Participation of single stocks matters for what comes next. A weaker market breadth would be a warning sign if fewer and fewer stocks carry the index higher. The SPX chart alone cannot show that. On top comes the Fed rate decision of 28 October: it left the key rate unchanged, after the rise of 16 September.

For 2027 the chart does not give a price target yet, but it does give the conditions. If the index returns above the half-year high at 7,621 and manages a monthly close above the all-time high, it moves into unknown territory. Then there are no old resistance levels above it any more, only round numbers such as 8,000 and 8,500.

A calculation example shows the order of magnitude. Since the end of 1995 the S&P 500 has risen at an annualized rate of 8.55 percent, without dividends. At that rate it would reach about 8,500 points at the end of 2027. This is a calculation with a historical growth rate, not a forecast. In single years the index moves far away from it; in 2022, for example, it lost 19.4 percent.

I will add bank targets for the end of 2027 with source and publication date. I will separate a calendar-year target from a rolling 12-month target. Until then: as long as the uptrend on the weekly and monthly chart is intact, the outlook for 2027 stays constructive.

The September low at 7,507 and the weekly low at 7,462 decide. The price levels come from my charts; the conditions are an editorial guideline. Signals count on a daily close basis. They are reference levels, not order rules.

On the half-year chart each candle stands for six months, and the scale is logarithmic. Logarithmic means that equal distances on the price axis stand for equal percentage moves. That makes the crash of 2008 and today's moves comparable, although the index traded below 700 points back then.

What matters now is the half-year high, drawn as an orange line in the chart. It is the high of the first half of 2026 from 2 June at 7,620.90 points. In the second half of the year the index broke above it in August and set a new all-time high at 7,844 points. Since then it has come back below the level and stands at 7,583 points, about 38 points under it.

The current bar shows little range of movement. The outlook therefore stays stable, and the uptrend is intact. If the index stays below the half-year high for longer, the breakout of the second half would have failed, and it would fall back into the range of the first half. That range ran from the March low at 6,312 to 7,620.90 points.

A brief dip below the half-year high is not enough on its own to confirm a failed breakout. What matters is whether the index reclaims 7,621.

The ultra long-term yearly chart since 1871 shows the uptrend of the last 150 years. It is logarithmic as well. The S&P 500 with 500 companies has existed since 1957; for the SPX, TradingView also shows a historical predecessor series back to 1871. The early parts are not prices of today's index published at the time. The Great Depression, the oil crisis, the dotcom crash and the financial crisis leave clear marks in the chart, with long bear markets and heavy losses. In this chart they did not end the long rise.

The annualized price growth depends on the period you pick. From the end of 1949 to 29 September 2026 it comes to about 8.31 percent a year. Since the end of 1995 it is 8.55 percent, since the end of 2005 about 9.15 percent. Each figure is the geometric annual growth rate of the price index, without dividends. The two shorter periods cover about 30¾ and 20¾ years.

Losing years are part of it. From 1986 to 2025 the S&P 500 closed the year lower ten times, counting the almost flat year 2011. The deepest fall came in 2008 with 38.5 percent, and in 2022 it lost 19.4 percent.

At the annualized price growth since the end of 1995, the S&P 500 would reach about 10,900 points at the end of 2030. The calculation starts from the close of 29 September at 7,670.84 points with 8.55 percent a year. In ten years, in autumn 2036, that would be about 17,400 points.

Small differences in the rate make big differences in the result. At 6 percent a year it would be about 9,800 points at the end of 2030, at 10 percent about 11,500. For 2036 the range runs from 13,700 to 19,900. These are conditional calculations, not price targets. A crash like 2008 could push any of these numbers back by years or put them out of reach.