Dow Jones Forecast: Levels and Scenarios for Traders

The charts are Karsten's own and show the Dow Jones as US30 from Capital.com on TradingView. All quoted prices are chart readings. The weekly, daily and 4-hour charts are from Wednesday morning, 11 November 2026, between 07:26 and 07:27 CET, the quarterly chart is from 7 November; each caption names its own time.

The 4-hour chart above shows the downward tendency from the record level. It led through the whole of September into a stable structure down, from the all-time high at 54,736 points in lower highs and lower lows into October, accompanied by the red downtrend line since the September high at 53,749 points.

Supporting demand came into the market around 50,500 points. The low was at 50,532 points. That led to the break of the downtrend line, and since then an uptrend structure has been running in the trend channel.

The recovery momentum ran out in the test of the zone. Tuesday brought a down impulse that took the price back to about 52,300.

On Wednesday morning the zone is still close to the price. Whether the down impulse of Tuesday turns into a second wave down remains to be seen; then the area around 51,500 would be in focus. If the price rises clearly above Tuesday's high at 52,678, targets beyond 53,100 would come into play.

The daily chart above shows the start of the previous rally at the beginning of April. The clear upward thrust turned into a stable trend phase that led, with a kind of exhaustion extension at the beginning of August, to the all-time high at 54,736 points.

The previous down move found support at the 200-day line and recovered through the moving averages. The line runs at 50,767 points. The price stands at 52,324 points above the averages for 20 days (52,250) and 50 days (52,016), below the one for 100 days (52,455).

The recovery stalled at the yellow mark. Tuesday's high at 52,678 lies just above it. Only a clear breakout opens the way upward.

How the other two big US indices stand is shown in the S&P 500 forecast and the Nasdaq 100 forecast.

Tuesday's high above and the area around 51,500 below decide. The price levels come from Karsten's charts; the closing conditions are an editorial guideline. They are reference levels, not order rules.

The weekly chart above shows an established uptrend structure above the blue trend line. It starts at the 2025 low at 36,499 points and carries the rise to the all-time high.

The weekly candle at the beginning of August stands out. It opened with an upward gap, and the solid line at 52,635 points starts from the low of this candle. The all-time high at 54,736 points came out of that candle.

At the all-time high profit-taking showed. It led back into the area of 51,000 points, and the correction is clearly visible on the weekly chart. In the previous week the counter-move took the line at 52,635 in the middle of the week and reached the September high.

The current week does not get beyond the yellow mark. The weekly high is at 52,678, and the price now stands below it. If it falls further, the 51,500 would be the next target.

These dates are coming up in the next weeks. They are occasions to read the chart again, not a forecast of a particular reaction. All times are central European time.

Friday, 4 December, 14:30 CET: the US jobs report for November (BLS schedule).

Wednesday, 9 December, 20:00 CET: the Fed rate decision after the meeting of 8 and 9 December (Fed calendar).

The Fed rate decision on 28 October is over. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September and left it unchanged after the meeting of 27 and 28 October (FOMC statement). The ECB also left its key rates unchanged on 29 October; its next rate decision follows on 17 December (ECB calendar).

This part is written for readers who look beyond the next few days. It is reviewed at the start of the month, not daily.

The quarterly chart above shows where the market comes from. From the 2025 low at 36,499 points the Dow Jones rose to the all-time high at 54,736 points, a gain of about 50 percent. In doing so it left the 2024 high at 45,082 and the 2025 high at 48,880 points behind.

The third quarter is marked by the all-time high. The index ran to the all-time high in the summer and fell back clearly by the end of the quarter; the bar closed far down in its range, a reversal bar.

The fourth quarter mostly moves in the price area of the third. From the high at 53,775 points the index comes back clearly and puts pressure on the area around 51,000 points; with Friday's close the bar stands at 51,306 points.

At the year-end the closing price counts. A year-end close above 50,000 points, ideally at 52,000, would give a firm candle and carry a positive outlook for the coming year. Quotes below the previous year's high at 48,880 points, on the other hand, would point to the correction tendency prevailing.