EUR/JPY Forecast: Next Week, Coming Days and Long Term

EUR/JPY forecast 2026: what the banks expect

For the end of 2026, MUFG names 173.60; the Bloomberg consensus quoted there is 181. The Japanese bank MUFG published the figure for the end of the fourth quarter in its currency outlook of 1 October 2026. ING names 179 for a different horizon: in its outlook of 12 October 2026 for one, three and six months, so until about April 2027.

Forecasts of 1 and 12 October 2026; sources in the text, Bloomberg consensus as quoted in the MUFG report.

ING expects a sideways phase rather than a new trend. After a rise of more than 60 percent in six years, it sees EUR/JPY in a multi-year correction, perhaps in a range between 175 and 182. MUFG, in contrast, expects a lower rate than today by the end of 2026.

Bank forecasts are third-party assessments, not a trading recommendation. They depend on assumptions about interest rates and the economy and are revised regularly. Karsten’s charts, in contrast, show the current situation in the downtrend.

EUR/JPY forecast 2027 and 2028: what the banks expect

For 2027, the sources selected here name values between 174.40 and 181. MUFG expects a slight rise from 174.40 in the first to 175.80 in the third quarter of 2027; the Bloomberg consensus is 181 for the first quarter of 2027 and 180 for the second and third. ING sees EUR/JPY at 181 in twelve months, that is around October 2027.

An older view comes from Commerzbank. According to FXStreet, in July 2026 it expected a rate of around 175 by the end of 2027. That view assumed the US Federal Reserve would not raise rates in 2026, which it did on 16 September. It is therefore a historical comparison, not a current forecast.

For 2028 we found no bank forecast in the sources we checked. The current October sources reach to about October 2027, the older Commerzbank view to the end of 2027. We therefore name no price target for 2028.

EUR/JPY forecast 2030: what purchasing power parity says

Purchasing power parity is the exchange rate at which a comparable basket of goods and services costs the same in two countries.

In the sources checked for this article we found no reliable bank forecast for 2030. What remains as a valuation yardstick is purchasing power parity. In its World Economic Outlook database, the International Monetary Fund shows it only by country, not for the euro area (WEO October 2026, retrieved 18 October 2026). For Japan it puts the 2030 value at 93.665 yen per international dollar, for Germany at 0.719 euros.

Against Germany, this gives a parity of around 130 yen per euro. That is our own calculation, 93.665 divided by 0.719. With the French price level (0.635) it would be around 147.5 yen. Both values are well below the current rate: measured against these two country yardsticks, the yen looks cheap against the euro.

No price target follows from this. Exchange rates can drift away from purchasing power parity for decades; it is an equilibrium value, not a timetable.

What is the EUR/JPY currency pair?

The EUR/JPY currency pair shows how many Japanese yen one euro costs.

EUR/JPY is a cross pair, that is, a currency pair without the US dollar. It connects the euro and the yen, two of the world’s most important reserve currencies. A rate of 177.55 means that one euro costs 177.55 yen. If the rate rises, the euro gets stronger; if it falls, the yen gains.

USD/JPY offers another view of the yen. Moves in dollar-yen often carry over into euro-yen. Comparing the two pairs can help identify moves driven mainly by the yen. The levels are in the USD/JPY forecast.

What moves the EUR/JPY rate

The rate gap is the distance between the policy rates of two currency areas. The wider it is, the more attractive the higher-yielding currency becomes for investors.

The ECB deposit rate is 1.25 percentage points above the BoJ policy rate. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50 percent on 10 September 2026, effective from 16 September. The Bank of Japan raised to 1.25 percent on 18 September, effective from 24 September. Both raised by 0.25 points in September, so the gap has stayed the same.

Banks on both sides expect further steps in the coming months. ING expects a last ECB rise to 2.75 percent in December and the next BoJ rise to 1.50 percent in January or as early as 18 December. MUFG expects the Bank of Japan’s next rise in December. These are expectations, not decisions.

The carry trade weakened the yen for years. Investors borrow yen cheaply and invest the money in higher-yielding currencies. If the rate advantage shrinks or uncertainty rises, such trades can be unwound and support the yen.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance can intervene when the yen falls too fast. In April and May 2026 it bought yen worth 11,734.9 billion yen, according to the Ministry of Finance, exclusively against the US dollar. EUR/JPY can only be affected indirectly, through the yen side. An intervention against the euro is not documented for 2026.

In a crisis, the yen counts as a safe currency, like the franc. When uncertainty rises, it can strengthen quickly and weigh on EUR/JPY. How the franc is doing against the dollar is shown in the USD/CHF forecast.

On the euro side, the view of the dollar matters too. The levels for the euro against the US dollar are in the EUR/USD forecast. Anyone trading EUR/JPY needs a stop loss and a position size that fits a predefined loss limit.

How this forecast is made

The charts are my own, with FXCM price data, from the 4-hour to the yearly chart. Each shows the highs and lows of earlier years that matter for its horizon. How such levels work is explained in our guide to support and resistance. The charts were made with TradingView, and this page follows our editorial policy.

Conclusion: EUR/JPY stays bearish below the August low

As an active trader since 1980, I see EUR/JPY in an established downtrend. The rise of recent years ended almost exactly at the 1990 high of 188.22, at least for now. Since then the price has been correcting towards the 2024 high at 175.43, which could offer support at least in the short term.

In the short term, EUR/JPY has been moving sideways since early October, and that could be a bear flag. On Friday the price stood at the upper edge of this range. Only above the August low at 179.36 would I turn the picture from bearish to neutral.

Please note

The scenarios are a personal assessment based on experience. They summarize possible price developments for each time frame and are not a certainty. This is market analysis, not investment advice. Keep your position sizes in line with your own risk management.

This forecast is translated from the German edition on kagels-trading.de.

How our forecasts are made and reviewed: How we work.