SpaceX Stock Forecast: Chart Levels and Scenarios

SpaceX stock closed the week to 2 October at $158.96, 6.9 percent above the week before. The weekly range ran from $145.36 to $159.84, and the close sits in the top tenth of it.

Four days of back and forth, then a breakout. From Monday to Thursday every close was between $145.47 and $150.86. Monday ended on its low, although Starship reached orbit for the first time that day. Tuesday and Wednesday made that back, and Thursday lost 1.9 percent. On Friday the stock rose 7.4 percent to $158.96, the biggest daily gain since 12 August.

Friday carried weight. 119.9 million shares changed hands, more than on any day since 18 September. The close sits at 92 percent of the daily range, close to the high at $159.84. The stock last traded this high on 6 July, and the close is also the highest since that day.

A level has fallen, this time to the upside. For a week the $158.13 high of 21 September stood as resistance in the table below. Friday closed 83 cents above it. The round number $150 held on a closing basis only on Wednesday and Friday; it is now the second support below the price.

Two lines, no price targets. To the upside, $167.90 is the next level, and the all-time high of $225.64 is about 42 percent above the price. To the downside $158.13 has to hold first, and below it are $150 and the weekly low at $145.36.

The gap from July is getting smaller. The monthly bars show it: from the June close at $170.86, July cost 36.6 percent, and if you lose 36.6 percent you need a gain of about 58 percent to get back to zero. From the July close at $108.37 to $158.96 it is 46.7 percent. A week earlier it was 37 percent. The gap is not closed yet. September ended at $150.86, up 5.0 percent on the August close.

The launches came on Thursday, the price on Friday. On 1 October SpaceX flew three missions in about 13 hours. Crew-13 took four astronauts to the ISS, Transporter-18 carried about 130 payloads into space, and a Falcon Heavy flew its first mission for the US reconnaissance agency NRO with NROL-97. Two launches came during market hours, the Falcon Heavy lifted off shortly before midnight. Thursday itself closed 1.9 percent lower. Reports put Friday's rise down to exactly these launches, plus a contract that runs at its full rate from October.

The contract is the second reason. According to reports on Friday's rise, Google pays SpaceX about $920 million a month for computing power, over 32 months to June 2029, about $29 billion in total. The full rate applies from October. Together with Anthropic, which has paid about $1.25 billion a month since July, these two customers alone come to almost $2.2 billion a month. One of Thursday's launches also carried a test satellite for Google's project to move data centres into space.

This time the bond market ran the other way. In the week before, the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield had pulled the stock down. This week the yield kept rising, to 5.29 percent on 30 September, a new high for the year, according to the official daily closing values of the US Treasury. The stock rose 6.9 percent in the same week. No source explains why the interest rate did not hit the price this time.

Everything starts with the price and the share count. At the issue price of $135, SpaceX was worth about $1.77 trillion. Since then the count has grown: 13.18 billion shares on 28 July according to the quarterly report, plus about 391 million new shares for Cursor on 14 August (SEC filing). With about 13.57 billion shares, $158.96 means about $2.16 trillion. Against 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion the price-to-sales ratio is about 116; with second-quarter revenue scaled up to a year it is about 69.

This is where it pays to do the maths. Morgan Stanley calls the stock attractively valued because it costs only about ten times the revenue expected for 2028. Work it back: at a $2.16 trillion valuation, a factor of ten assumes annual revenue of just over $200 billion in 2028. For 2025 the books show about $18.7 billion. That is more than ten times as much in three years. So the stock is only cheap if that calculation works out.

Interest rates hit the core of this valuation. A stock with a price-to-sales ratio of over 100 lives on profits that lie far in the future. When rates rise, the same future billion is worth less today. The 10-year yield reached a new high for the year at 5.29 percent on 30 September. That week it did not slow the price, the week before it did. The next Fed meeting is on 27 and 28 October; our interest rate forecast follows the path.

The data centre contracts add up, but not to the target. The three contracts with Google, Anthropic and a new customer come to about $3.3 billion a month, almost $40 billion a year once all of them run at full rate. Google has been at full rate since October, the third customer starts in December. That is more than the second-quarter run-rate of about $31 billion, but less than half of the $100 billion target. Further contracts, Starlink and the launch business would have to close the gap.

The free float has become a valuation question. For a long time this analysis treated the share releases only as a burden. The index rebalancing of 18 September shows the other side: the more shares are freely tradable, the higher the weight in the index and the more passive funds have to hold. The weight more than doubled without any change in the business. The tranches up to the end of the year therefore work in both directions.

A second figure makes the valuation tangible. The book value per share was about $9.66 on 30 June, so the price is a good 16 times what stands behind one share on paper. The balance sheet itself is solid: about $192.8 billion of assets against $65.5 billion of liabilities, plus about $93.5 billion of cash and liquid assets. If you buy here, you pay for what is expected, not for what exists.

The second $100 billion figure. On the earnings call for the quarterly report, Musk said a revenue run-rate of $100 billion by December was "no question". The second quarter equals a run-rate of about $31 billion, so it would take more than a tripling in five months. The same number came up a second time soon after, this time on the other side: $100 billion for a single launch site, Starbase Louisiana. One sum is a hope, the other a commitment.

It is notable who disagrees on the revenue target. Deutsche Bank, which considers it reachable in principle, itself expects only $45 to $50 billion by the end of the year, less than half. After the Cursor acquisition closed, the same bank raised its profit estimate for the full year by 11 percent but left its price target unchanged at $235.

What stands behind the valuation. In the second quarter revenue rose 92 percent on the year before to $7.81 billion, according to the earnings release. Adjusted EBITDA, a company measure before interest, taxes, depreciation and share-based pay, was $3.54 billion, and the bottom line showed a loss of $541 million. Compared with the first quarter, the AI business grew from $818 million to $2.56 billion, Starlink from $3.25 to $4.29 billion and the classic space business from $619 to $962 million. Against this stand $18.4 billion of capital spending in a single quarter, $15.8 billion of it on AI data centres.

Analysts are split. Morningstar puts fair value at about $780 billion, about 36 percent of the valuation at $158.96. At the other end, Morgan Stanley has a price target of $300 and a best case of even $600. Oppenheimer has been at $280 since 2 September, Pivotal Research at $220 since 8 September, Mizuho at $200. The average price target is about $236. Whether a price-to-sales ratio of this size holds is a question you have to answer for yourself. The company and its IPO are covered in our guide to SpaceX stock.

The next IPO of this size is already lined up. Anthropic is valued at $965 billion. Our Anthropic stock forecast calculates what that valuation means against its revenue, and the OpenAI stock forecast does the same for the rival that has not set a date yet.

Two scenarios, clearly separated. No price targets, only the logic behind the two paths.

Keep these drivers in view as the chart analysis goes on. In my view the interest rate path and the share releases weigh most in the coming weeks, because both act directly on the price.

The rate path is the heaviest macro factor. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September, the first increase in about three years. The 10-year yield reached its highest level of the year at 5.29 percent on 30 September. For a stock with a price-to-sales ratio of over 100, this is the strongest headwind.

The launch rate is the hardest currency. On 1 October SpaceX flew three missions in about 13 hours, including Crew-13 and the first Falcon Heavy for the NRO. With 100 orbital missions by 19 August, SpaceX was already about two months ahead of last year's pace in the summer.

Starship after its first orbital flight. On 28 September Starship reached about 170 miles of altitude and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites, despite an engine that shut down early. The question is no longer whether the vehicle flies, but at what cadence.

The release calendar sets the supply. According to the final prospectus, up to 328 million shares could be sold from 9 October and up to as many again from 24 October. Up to 1.3 billion follow two trading days after the third-quarter results in November, and up to 798 million on 8 December, when the 180-day lock-up period ends. These are maximum amounts; how many are actually sold is not known.

The Nasdaq 100 weight stays. Since 21 September SpaceX weighs about 2.8 percent in the index instead of 1.3 percent, according to reports on the rebalancing. About $1.7 trillion is tied to the Nasdaq 100. The forced buying is done, the higher weight remains. Our Nasdaq 100 forecast follows the index.

The build-out of computing power is the figure to watch. At the end of the second quarter 1.4 gigawatts were online, by the end of the year it should be a little over 2, and for 2027 the CFO names 5 to 10 gigawatts. After the change of leadership in this unit, the pace is the key figure.

The revenue from computing power depends on very few customers. Google pays about $920 million a month, at full rate since October, Anthropic about $1.25 billion, and from December an unnamed customer about $1.11 billion.

Starbase Louisiana is the biggest single investment. SpaceX is investing $100 billion in a second Starbase site with five launch complexes of two pads each, its own propellant production and a power plant. Construction starts in 2027, and the first launch is targeted for 2029 to 2030.

There is no reliable SpaceX forecast for 2030, only scenarios. They depend on whether the billions invested in AI, chips and Starship pay off.

Why no fixed price target? A few months of price history and a single quarterly report do not carry a five-year forecast. The only honest answer is the range of possible developments.