SpaceX Stock Forecast: Chart Levels and Scenarios

SpaceX stock closed the week to 23 October at $147.49, 1.0 percent above the week before. The weekly range ran from $143.21 to $166.18, 16 percent in five trading days, and the close sits in the bottom fifth of it.

First the jump, then the drop. On Monday and Tuesday the stock moved just below $150 and closed at $147.79 on Tuesday. On Wednesday it closed at $159.31, up 7.8 percent, the biggest daily gain since 12 August. On Thursday it fell 9.1 percent to $144.75, the biggest daily loss since 5 August and the lowest close since 15 September. Friday won back 1.9 percent.

The weekly bar shows it. The week opened at $149.23 and closed just below it, almost $19 below the high. With 720 million shares, volume was the highest since the week to 7 August. Most trading came on Wednesday, 220.8 million shares, the highest daily figure since 18 September.

On Wednesday it was about the results. The evening before, SpaceX had reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion and a net profit of $4.4 billion (details in the next section). In regular trading the stock ran up to $166.18, its highest level since 12 October, and gave back almost $7 of that by the close.

On Thursday the large share release came. On the second full trading day after the results, up to about 1.3 billion shares became eligible to trade, the largest release since the IPO. The stock fell 9.1 percent on the same day. The data show only that both happened together: shares allowed to trade are not shares actually sold, and how many were sold is not known.

Two lines, no price targets. We measure at the weekly close. To the upside the price first has to get back above $150, then $160 follows. The price is about 35 percent below the all-time high of $225.64. To the downside the weekly low at $143.21 carries first, below it the low of 15 October at $140.66, then $138.17 and the issue price of $135.

The gap from July is wide open again. The monthly bars show it: from the June close at $170.86, July cost 36.6 percent, and if you lose 36.6 percent you need a gain of about 58 percent to get back to zero. In early October the gap was closed for one day. At the weekly close the price is about 36 percent above the July close of $108.37. October stands at 2.2 percent down on the September close of $150.86 after 17 trading days.

The bond market explains nothing this week either. On Thursday the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.13 to 4.96 percent, as low as on 22 September, according to the official daily closing values of the US Treasury. Falling rates normally help expensive growth stocks. The stock still lost more than 9 percent on the same day.

Revenue rose 161 percent to $14.6 billion. That is what SpaceX reported for the third quarter on 20 October in its earnings release, almost twice the $7.81 billion of the second quarter. The SI segment (Super Intelligence, formerly AI) brought in $7.56 billion, Starlink and the rest of Connectivity $5.25 billion, and the space business $1.77 billion. Cursor contributed $608 million.

The profit has help from below the operating line. Income from operations was $2.79 billion and the net profit $4.40 billion. On top came $873 million of interest income, $1.03 billion of other income and a tax benefit of $390 million, offset by $675 million of interest expense. Adjusted EBITDA, a company measure, was $8.81 billion. Over the first nine months of 2026 the group still shows a net loss of $413 million.

The spending keeps rising. Capital spending was $19.6 billion in the quarter, $16.4 billion of it for SI. On the call management guided the fourth quarter to $35 to $40 billion, according to the Motley Fool transcript. Computing power reached 1.7 gigawatts and should be 2.5 to 3 gigawatts at the end of the year. Starlink grew to 13.6 million consumer subscribers, and revenue per customer rose from $66 to $69 a month.

The targets got bigger. CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX remains on track for an annual run-rate of $100 billion at the end of 2026. On the call this means December revenue multiplied by twelve, so about $8.3 billion in that one month; the third quarter averaged about $4.9 billion a month. Third-quarter revenue annualised is about $58 billion, a different period from the December target. For the first quarter of 2027 the company guided revenue of $33 to $37 billion. The backlog was $63 billion, and about $42 billion of it is expected to be recognised as revenue within twelve months, according to Investing.com.

The first reaction was positive, the second was not. On Tuesday the stock closed at $147.79. After the close it rose 6.6 percent to $157.59, according to Investing.com, which also put earnings per share at $0.35 against an expected $0.13. On Wednesday it closed at $159.31, on Thursday, the day of the large share release, at $144.75. After-hours prices are thin and not part of the chart levels here.

Everything starts with the price and the share count. At the issue price of $135, SpaceX was worth about $1.77 trillion. Since then the count has grown, mainly through the Cursor deal in August: the third-quarter report lists about 13.58 billion shares on 15 October. At the weekly close of $147.49 that means about $2.00 trillion, about 13 percent more than at the IPO. The price itself is about 9 percent above the issue price; the new shares make up the rest. Against 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion the price-to-sales ratio is about 107; with third-quarter revenue annualised it is about 34.

This is where it pays to do the maths. In late August Morgan Stanley called the stock attractively valued because it cost only about ten times the revenue expected for 2028. Our own test with today's valuation, not a forecast by the bank: at about $2.00 trillion, a ratio of ten assumes annual revenue of about $200 billion in 2028. For 2025 the books show about $18.7 billion, and the third quarter annualised gives about $58 billion, under a third of that figure.

Interest rates hit the core of this valuation. A stock with a price-to-sales ratio of over 100 lives on profits that lie far in the future. When rates rise, the same future billion is worth less today. The 10-year yield reached a new high for the year at 5.31 percent on 5 October and stood at 5.00 percent on 23 October. In September the rise in rates slowed the price once; in October the stock moved against the rate several times. The next Fed meeting is on 27 and 28 October; our interest rate forecast follows the path.

The data centre contracts add up, but not to the target. The three contracts with Google, Anthropic and a new customer come to about $3.3 billion a month, almost $40 billion a year once all of them run at full rate. Google has been at full rate since October, the third customer starts in December. That is a large part of the third-quarter run-rate of about $58 billion, but less than half of the $100 billion target. Further contracts, Starlink and the launch business would have to close the gap.

And what they cost. According to the reports of 6 and 7 October, SpaceX is seeking about $40 billion of debt for the chips behind these contracts. That is roughly one year of the contract revenue named above. Interest and repayment keep running even if demand for computing power slows. In August Morgan Stanley saw exactly this part as hardly priced in. Both are true at the same time: the AI business is the biggest opportunity and the biggest consumer of capital.

The free float has become a valuation question. For a long time this analysis treated the share releases only as a burden. The index rebalancing of 18 September shows the other side: the more shares are freely tradable, the higher the weight in the index and the more passive funds have to hold. The weight more than doubled without any change in the business. The tranches up to the end of the year therefore work in both directions.

A second figure makes the valuation tangible. The book value per share was about $13.02 on 30 September, so the price is about 11 times what stands behind one share on paper. The balance sheet itself is solid: about $254.0 billion of assets against $77.3 billion of liabilities, plus about $89.9 billion of cash and marketable securities. If you buy here, you pay for what is expected, not for what exists.

The second $100 billion figure. On the earnings call in August, Musk said a revenue run-rate of $100 billion by December was "no question". The second quarter equalled a run-rate of about $31 billion, so at the time it would have taken more than a tripling in five months. Measured like the target, December revenue times twelve, it now takes about $8.3 billion in that month, against an average of about $4.9 billion a month in the third quarter. The same number came up a second time soon after, this time on the other side: $100 billion for a single launch site, Starbase Louisiana, spread over several years. One sum is a revenue hope, the other a spending plan.

It was notable who disagreed on the revenue target. Deutsche Bank called it "likely very achievable" in a note of 10 August, before the third-quarter results, but in the same note expected only $45 to $50 billion of run-rate exiting December, according to Yahoo Finance. After the Cursor acquisition closed in August, the same bank raised its profit estimate for the full year by 11 percent and left its price target at $235. Whether it has changed these figures since the results is not known to us.

The quarter before, for comparison. In the second quarter revenue rose 92 percent on the year before to $7.81 billion, according to the earnings release. Adjusted EBITDA, a company measure before interest, taxes, depreciation and share-based pay, was $3.54 billion, and the bottom line showed a loss of $541 million. Compared with the first quarter, the AI business grew from $818 million to $2.56 billion, Starlink from $3.25 to $4.29 billion and the classic space business from $619 to $962 million. Against this stood $18.4 billion of capital spending in a single quarter, $15.8 billion of it on AI data centres.

Analysts are split. Morningstar put fair value at about $780 billion at the IPO, about 39 percent of today's valuation. Among the optimistic voices, JPMorgan raised its price target from $240 to $500 on 21 October, according to TIKR. Morgan Stanley names $300 and reported a best case of $600 in August, Oppenheimer has been at $280 since 2 September, Pivotal Research at $220 since 8 September, Mizuho at $200. The average price target is about $244 to $255, depending on the data provider (MarketBeat $244.19 from 46 analysts, another provider $255.06 from 38, both as of 24 October). Whether a price-to-sales ratio of this size holds is a question you have to answer for yourself. The company and its IPO are covered in our guide to SpaceX stock.

The next IPO of this size is already lined up. Anthropic is valued at $965 billion. Our Anthropic stock forecast calculates what that valuation means against its revenue, and the OpenAI stock forecast does the same for the rival that has not set a date yet.

Two scenarios, clearly separated. No price targets, only the logic behind the two paths.

Keep these drivers in view as the chart analysis goes on. After the quarterly results and the largest share release since the IPO, the next tranche and the Fed meeting follow in the coming days.

The path to the $100 billion run-rate. In the third quarter revenue was $14.6 billion, about $58 billion annualised. The CFO confirmed the target of $100 billion for the end of 2026, which means December revenue times twelve, and the SI business has to deliver most of the gap. The guidance of $33 to $37 billion for the first quarter of 2027 is the next figure to check.

Starlink and politics. On 14 October Ukraine reported restrictions on the military Starlink service, and Musk pointed to control by the US government. Starlink brought in about 60 percent of revenue in the first half and was then the only profitable unit; in the third quarter Connectivity earned $2.37 billion of operating income, more than any other segment. A political dispute about this service therefore hits the core.

The financing of computing power is the open question. According to the reports of 6 and 7 October, SpaceX is seeking about $40 billion of debt for Nvidia chips, split between bank loans and bonds. This is not confirmed. If it happens, interest costs and debt rise sharply, for hardware that loses value quickly.

The rate path is the heaviest macro factor. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September, the first increase in about three years. The 10-year yield reached its highest level of the year at 5.31 percent on 5 October and stood at 5.00 percent on 23 October. The next meeting is on 27 and 28 October (Fed calendar). For a stock with a price-to-sales ratio of over 100, this is the strongest headwind.

Starship after its first orbital flight. On 28 September Starship reached about 170 miles of altitude and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites, despite an engine that shut down early. On the call Musk said Flight 15 is planned for November, with an attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. For Starbase the FAA has opened an environmental review for up to 456 launches a year; so far 25 are allowed.

The release calendar sets the supply. According to the final prospectus, up to 1.3 billion shares became eligible to trade on 22 October, the second full trading day after the third-quarter results, the largest tranche since the IPO. Up to about 328 million more follow from 24 October, a Saturday, so the first trading day is Monday 26 October, and up to 798 million on 8 December, when the 180-day lock-up period ends. These are maximum amounts; how many are actually sold is not known.

The Nasdaq 100 weight stays. Since 21 September SpaceX weighs about 2.8 percent in the index instead of 1.3 percent, according to reports on the rebalancing. About $1.7 trillion is tied to the Nasdaq 100. The forced buying is done, the higher weight remains. Our Nasdaq 100 forecast follows the index.

The build-out of computing power is the figure to watch. At the end of the third quarter 1.7 gigawatts were online, up from 1.4 in June. By the end of the year it should be 2.5 to 3 gigawatts, and for 2027 Musk spoke of adding 10 gigawatts. After the change of leadership in this unit, the pace is the key figure.

The revenue from computing power depends on very few customers. Google pays about $920 million a month, at full rate since October, Anthropic about $1.25 billion, and from December an unnamed customer about $1.11 billion.

Starbase Louisiana is the biggest single project. SpaceX plans to invest $100 billion over several years in a second Starbase site with five launch complexes of two pads each, its own propellant production and a power plant. Construction starts in 2027, and the first launch is targeted for 2029 to 2030.

There is no reliable SpaceX forecast for 2030, only scenarios. They depend on whether the billions invested in AI, chips and Starship pay off.

Why no fixed price target? A few months of price history and two quarterly reports as a listed company do not carry a forecast to 2030. The only honest answer is the range of possible developments.