GBP/USD Forecast: Pound to Dollar Outlook and Levels

All charts on this page are by Karsten Kagels, with FXCM prices. They were exported on 8 October 2026 between 17:22 and 17:34 CEST (1.3213 to 1.3216). The key points use the latest reading from 17:34, 1.3214; each chart section names its own export. Today the analysis starts with the long-term yearly chart.

In recent years, 2026 included, the market has not managed to overcome the cluster of earlier years' lows. It is formed above all by the lows of 2009, 2001 and 1993 at 1.3502, 1.3683 and 1.4068. The lower two levels were exceeded at times, but not the whole resistance cluster between about 1.35 and 1.41.

GBP/USD opened 2026 at 1.3455 and rose to 1.3869. The 2026 high lies inside the cluster. Since then the pair has fallen back to the 2026 low at 1.3140 and now stands below the cluster at 1.3214.

The daily chart shows the move from the 2022 low to the 2026 high. It includes the green uptrend line from the 2022 low through the 2025 low, and the lows of 2009, 2001 and 1993 from the yearly chart.

The long-term uptrend line was broken to the downside in recent weeks. The daily chart is therefore now in an established downtrend. Today GBP/USD moved between 1.3184 and 1.3249 and stood at 1.3213 at 17:27 CEST.

Above the price are now the broken trend line and the 2009 low. The 2009 low at 1.3502 is the first marked resistance, followed by the 2001 low at 1.3683. The next support is the 2026 low at 1.3140.

On the weekly chart the market is testing the 100 week average. The yellow line still acts as support for now. Above it run two shorter averages, below it the 200 week average (orange).

In principle, further falling prices can be expected. The next price target is the 2026 low at 1.3140. After that come the November 2025 low at 1.3010 and the 200 week average running below it.

This week opened at 1.3231. The weekly high so far is 1.3286 and the weekly low 1.3184; at 17:31 CEST GBP/USD stood at 1.3213.

The long-term monthly chart clearly shows the trading range since mid-2025. It runs roughly from the November 2025 low at 1.3010 to the 2026 high at 1.3869. The chart also shows the uptrend line from the 2022 low and a red falling line from the 2026 high.

In the longer term, a move down towards the 2025 low is quite possible. The 2025 low is at 1.2099. October opened at 1.3263, has reached a monthly low of 1.3181 so far and stood at 1.3214 at 17:34 CEST.

Only above the 2026 high would the long-term picture turn neutral. That level is 1.3869, the threshold for a neutral picture. Until then the monthly chart points down.

One base case and one level above which it no longer applies. The base case is further falling prices; the 2026 high at 1.3869 is the level above which the long-term picture turns neutral. These are reference levels, not order rules.