MOVE Index: The VIX of the Bond Market, Explained

On 10 October 2008 the MOVE index closed at 264.6 points, on 29 September 2020 at 36.6. Between panic and calm the US bond market swings by almost a factor of seven, and that is exactly what this index measures: how strongly professionals expect US interest rates to move over the coming weeks.

Here you will learn how the MOVE is calculated, which readings are normal and where it differs from the VIX. On top comes my own analysis of almost 24 years of data: what a high MOVE reading has meant for the S&P 500 in the following month.

The MOVE index in 30 seconds

• The MOVE index is a volatility index for the US bond market. It shows how much the yields of US interest rate instruments are expected to swing over the coming month, which is why it is called the VIX of bonds.
• ICE calculates it from options with one month to expiry. They cover maturities of 2, 5, 10 and 30 years, and the 10-year counts double.
• On 29 September 2026 the MOVE stood at 106.60. Over the previous twelve months it ranged between 55.77 and 115.02.
• The median since November 2002 is 80.1. The record of 264.6 dates from the financial crisis in October 2008.
• MOVE and VIX often move together, but not always. On 795 days with a MOVE of 120 or more, the VIX was at 25 or higher on only 404 of them.
• In my analysis a high MOVE did not predict the direction of stocks. The range of the S&P 500 over the following month was twice as wide, though.

What is the MOVE index?

The MOVE index is a volatility index for the US bond market. Based on current option prices, it shows how much the yields of US interest rate instruments are expected to swing over the coming month, and it is quoted in basis points.

Its full name is the ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index. The name MOVE goes back to its days at Merrill Lynch; today it is calculated by the exchange and data group ICE.

The index was developed by Harley Bassman, then a derivatives trader at Merrill Lynch. He wanted to make volatility tangible for his clients as a risk of its own, according to his biography. In August 2019 ICE took over the index, together with other volatility indices, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as The Bond Buyer reported.

It measures unrest in the market for US interest rates, not the price of a bond. A reading of 100 does not mean something rises by 100 percent. It means the market expects large rate moves. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a jumpy yield also means a jumpy bond price.

How is the MOVE index calculated?

The MOVE is built from four options with one month to expiry, each struck at the money. According to a market report by the US asset manager NISA, they are written on interest rate swaps with maturities of 2, 5, 10 and 30 years. Their prices give the expected swing in yields, which is then averaged with fixed weights.

Maturity	Weight	Stands for
2 years	20%	Expectations for the Fed
5 years	20%	Middle maturities
10 years	40%	Benchmark maturity of the bond market
30 years	20%	Long maturities

The 10-year maturity counts double because it is the most important yardstick in the bond market. Mortgage rates, corporate bonds and the valuation of stocks take their cue from it. The 2-year maturity, by contrast, reacts mainly to expectations for the next rate steps of the Fed.

The basis of the index has shifted over the years. When ICE took it over in 2019, the trade press still described the basket as options on US Treasuries. On its MOVE product page ICE now names options on US interest rate swaps and also offers versions with three and six months. ICE does not give a date for the change there.

The unit is basis points per year, and one basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. A MOVE of 100 roughly means: over a year the market expects a typical rate move of one percentage point. Scaled down to one month, that is about 29 basis points, because volatility grows with the square root of time.

What is a normal MOVE level, and what signals stress?

The median of all daily closes since November 2002 is 80.1. In the calm years from 2010 to 2019 it was only 69.9. Readings below 60 point to a very quiet rate market; readings above 120 have so far occurred mainly during crises or fast turns in interest rates.

The highest readings each fall into well-known stress periods. The table shows the peaks and the low of the last 24 years, each as a daily close. The events next to them happened at the same time; that alone does not prove a single cause.

Date	Close	Background
10 Oct 2008	264.6	Lehman collapse
1 Jun 2009	190.3	Financial crisis
9 Mar 2020	163.7	Covid crash
29 Sep 2020	36.6	Policy rate near zero
12 Oct 2022	160.7	Fed tightening
20 Mar 2023	182.6	Silicon Valley Bank failure
8 Apr 2025	139.9	New US tariffs
26 Mar 2026	115.0	High of the last 12 months

March 2023 was not the highest reading since the financial crisis, as is often written. Based on daily closes, the MOVE stood at 190.3 on 1 June 2009, higher than the 182.6 of 20 March 2023. Higher figures of around 199 that circulate for 2023 do not refer to the daily close in our data series.

The MOVE currently stands above its long-term median. According to CNBC it was at 106.60 on 29 September 2026, after 101.82 the day before. In January 2026 it had marked the lowest reading of the last twelve months at 55.77.

MOVE index vs VIX: what is the difference?

Both indices measure expected swings from option prices, but in different markets. The VIX looks at options on the S&P 500, as its provider Cboe describes it. It is quoted in percent, the MOVE on the US rate market in basis points. That is why the numbers cannot be compared directly: a VIX of 16 and a MOVE of 106 can both be normal at the same time. The chart below shows both indices since 2002, one above the other, with the five largest stress periods.

Feature	MOVE index	VIX
Market	US rates	US stocks
Basis	Options on 2 to 30 years	Options on the S&P 500
Unit	Basis points	Percent
Provider	ICE	Cboe
Median since 2002	80.1	16.9

Over long periods both indices move in the same direction, day to day much less so. In my analysis the daily levels had a correlation of 0.59. For the daily changes it was only 0.28. For comparison: the changes of the VIX and the S&P 500 were far more closely linked at minus 0.81.

Many market watchers therefore divide the MOVE by the VIX. Since 2002 the ratio had a median of 4.8; on 29 September 2026 it was about 6.6. A high value means the rate market is more nervous than the stock market. Whether stocks follow cannot be read from the ratio alone.

How does the MOVE index affect the stock market?

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is the yardstick investors use to value stocks. If it swings a lot, so does the value the market puts on future earnings. On top of that, liquidity gets more expensive when dealers find it harder to hedge their rate risk. That is why stock traders watch the MOVE as well.

I checked whether a high MOVE announced falling stock prices. For every trading day since November 2002 I took the MOVE level and measured the change in the S&P 500 over the following 21 trading days, roughly one month. The days are grouped by MOVE range.

MOVE range	Median next month	Swing
below 80	+1.36%	3.55%
80 to below 100	+1.36%	4.30%
100 to below 120	+1.82%	4.51%
120 and above	+1.48%	7.17%

The swing is the standard deviation of these one-month changes. Own analysis from 12 November 2002 to 21 September 2026, data from Yahoo Finance.

In this analysis the MOVE did not predict the direction. The median of the following month was even slightly higher with a MOVE of 120 and above than with calm readings below 80. The index did fall somewhat more often, though: in 38.2 percent of cases against 31.2 percent.

What changed clearly was the range. From a MOVE of 120, the standard deviation of the one-month change was 7.17 percent, about twice as large as below 80. A high MOVE meant above all larger swings in both directions. The days overlap, and periods like 2008 or 2020 weigh heavily in the top group. The analysis does not forecast the next month.

What drives the MOVE index higher?

The MOVE rises when the market becomes less certain about future interest rates. That happens above all when expectations for the Fed change quickly. When the US central bank decides and what it did last is covered in the Fed rate decision guide.

Inflation data are the second big driver. If the consumer price index surprises, traders have to recalculate the next rate steps, and that makes hedges more expensive. Which rate steps the market currently prices in is shown by the CME FedWatch Tool.

The highest readings, however, came in crises, not on normal data days. In 2008, 2020 and 2023 the issue was the stability of banks and whether markets kept working. In such phases investors flee into government bonds and sell them again shortly after, and both directions push expected volatility higher.

The MOVE covers only the US market. For German Bunds there is no equally well-known index. Where the Bund could go is covered in our Bund future forecast. A restless US rate market often spills over into Europe, though, because large investors shift money between markets worldwide.

Where can I see the MOVE index today?

You can find a MOVE index chart on TradingView under the symbol TVC:MOVE. There you can place it next to the VIX or the yield of the 10-year Treasury. On CNBC the symbol is .MOVE, and the page also shows the day’s high, low and the 52-week range.

On Yahoo Finance you need to be careful. On 29 September 2026 the symbol ^MOVE carried the wrong name “Northern Trust iBoxx 5-Year Tar” there, and the daily series ended on 21 September, although the current quote was right. If you work with the historical data, check the latest values against a second source.

The MOVE is updated throughout the US trading day. For an overview the closing level is usually enough. More important than a single day’s reading is where it stands compared with the last few months and whether it is moving fast.

Strengths and limits of the MOVE index

The MOVE is a useful early warning signal for the rate market, but not a trading signal. The two lists sum up what it adds to the big picture and where its explanatory power ends.

What the MOVE index does well

• It sums up the unrest in the whole US rate market in one number.
• It is based on option prices, so it shows expectations, not only past moves.
• In our data series it goes back to 2002 and makes crises comparable.
• Together with the VIX it shows whether the rate market or the stock market is more nervous.

Where the MOVE index reaches its limits

• It says nothing about whether rates will rise or fall.
• In my analysis it did not reliably announce a falling stock market.
• It covers only the US market, not Bunds or other European rates.
• Its make-up has changed over the years, so old and new readings are not built in exactly the same way.

Conclusion: the MOVE shows the unrest, not the direction

The MOVE index is the counterpart of the VIX for the US rate market. It measures in basis points how much yields are expected to swing over the next month, and the 10-year maturity counts double.

Readings around 70 to 80 are normal; above 120 the market is restless. The peaks came in the financial crisis, the Covid crash, the Fed tightening of 2022 and the 2023 bank failures. At about 106 the MOVE currently stands above its median.

For stock traders the MOVE is above all a hint at the size of coming moves. In my analysis the one-month move of the S&P 500 after high readings was twice as wide; no direction could be read from it.

Frequently asked questions about the MOVE index

What does the MOVE index measure?

The MOVE index measures how much US interest rates are expected to swing over the next month. It is calculated from options on maturities of 2, 5, 10 and 30 years and quoted in basis points.

What is a high MOVE index reading?

The median since November 2002 is 80.1. Readings above 120 occurred mainly in crises or during fast turns in rates; the record is 264.6 in October 2008.

What is the difference between the MOVE index and the VIX?

The VIX measures expected swings in the US stock market in percent, the MOVE those in the US rate market in basis points. Both are based on option prices. Since 2002 the ratio of MOVE to VIX had a median of 4.8.

Who calculates the MOVE index?

The index is calculated by ICE, the operator of the Intercontinental Exchange. It was developed by Harley Bassman at Merrill Lynch; ICE took it over from Bank of America Merrill Lynch in 2019.

Where can I see the MOVE index today?

On TradingView under TVC:MOVE and on CNBC under .MOVE. On Yahoo Finance the symbol is ^MOVE, but its historical series was recently incomplete there.

Does a high MOVE index predict falling stock prices?

Not reliably, according to my analysis since 2002. After a MOVE of 120 and above, the S&P 500 fell over the following month in 38.2 percent of cases, after readings below 80 in 31.2 percent. The swing, however, was twice as large.