S&P 500 Forecast 2021 – Long-term Prediction – Outlook

The S&P 500 Index Futures is the world’s most traded stock index.

In this article we make a S&P 500 forecast and also a long-term price prediction. We would like to give an assessment of the future price development of the S&P 500 index futures using the daily, weekly and monthly charts. We also look at the long-term charts for the S&P 500, which are the quarterly chart and yearly chart with a logarithmic scale. The basis of our analysis is the Price Action and Technical Chart Analysis.

The charts used are from TradingView and the prices are from the CME.

S&P 500 Forecast Daily Chart: New, but close all-time high

Last update: October 23, 2021

S&P 500 E-Mini futures are trading at 4 536 points after recovering from a correction. In the course of the week, the price moved from the July high up to a new record mark on Friday by exceeding the old mark by two dollars.

E-Mini S&P 500 forecast - based on daily chart - Reaching new all time high - price quoted at 4 536
S&P 500 forecast: Index futures are quoted at around 4 536 points (Chart: TradingView)

Resistance Levels: 4 549.50 | 4551.50 (All time high)
Support: Levels 4 422 | 4 347 | 4293

S&P 500 forecast: Beginning from the October’20 low at 3 225, the S&P 500 index futures has moved in an established uptrend. The series of higher lows was interrupted and weakness has shown up. The possible downward trend structure was resolved with the new all-time high. However, the waning movement could still lead to a sideways phase between July low and the new record high.

S&P 500 Outlook Weekly Chart: Possible sideways action above July low

Last update: October 23, 2021

S&P 500 is trading at 4 536 points. The uptrend on the weekly chart is stable. The price shows a correction movement from the record high and dropped near the July low. From the week low at $4 436 the S&P could reach up to a new record high.

S&P 500 Index Futures - Weekly Chart reaching new highs
S&P 500 forecast: Weekly Chart still shows possible sideways action (Chart: TradingView)

Resistance Levels: 4 549.50 | 4551.50 (All time high)
Support Levels: 4 224 | 4 029 | 3 983

S&P 500 Outlook: The weekly chart looks positive. More upside potential with a continuation of the long term uptrend has a high probability. Only a drop below the March high at 3 983 could turn the positive weekly chart picture to neutral. Prices below the February’20 high could turn the positive outlook of the weekly chart to negative. A break of close support levels could be interpreted as a warning signal.

S&P 500 Forecast Monthly Chart: October can continue the series

Last update: October 23, 2021

S&P 500 has climbed to new record levels in September and has fallen just below 4300 . October can recover from its low at $4 260 and continue the series of monthly record highs since November 2020. We are looking at an established uptrend.

SP500 monthly chart showing uptrend with a next record high
S&P 500 forecast: Market has reached the next time high (Chart: TradingView)

Resistance Levels: 4 549.50 | 4551.50 (All time high)
Support Levels: 3 983 | 3 862 | 3 587

S&P 500 forecast: A continuation of the uptrend in the monthly chart has the highest probability and in the longer perspective more price advance is possible. Only a drop below the February’20 high at 3 397.50 could turn the positive monthly chart picture to neutral. Prices below the April low at $3 964.50 could be interpreted as a warning signal.

S&P 500 prediction – the bigger picture (quarterly chart)

Last update: October 23, 2021

The bigger picture: In the quarterly chart showing the price action from 2012 to the current year 2021, we can see the long term uptrend. S&P 500 has reached a new all time high in October. The market is trading above the major support of the February’20 high which is located at 3397.50 points and also above the high from 2020, which is located at 3753 points.

SP500 quarterly chart showing all time highs in established uptrend
Bigger Picture – SP500 outlook: Long-term uptrend is stable (Chart: TradingView)

Resistance Levels: 4551.50 (All time high)
Support Levels: 3 983 | 3 587 | 3 397

S&P 500 outlook: We expect S&P 500 to continue the long term uptrend. The quarterly chart looks positive, although the candle of the past quarter shows an upper shadow, which urges caution.

Very important is the February high at 3 397.50 which is key support. As long as the market is trading above this level, the outlook and bigger picture remains positive. Prices below 3 753 would worsen the chart picture and turn the bullish outlook to neutral or negative.

S&P 500 Historical Chart and Long Term Outlook

Last update: October 23, 2021

In the yearly chart of the S&P 500 Index, which shows price history from 1925 until 2021, we can see the long term uptrend.
The price bar of 2020 is a so called outside bar. In this historical chart, the 20 years simple moving average (20 SMA) is also moving upwards. In the past, the yearly 20 SMA was last tested in the financial crisis of the years 2008/2009.

SP500 historical chart reaching the all time high in established uptrend - historical chart
SP500 price prediction: Long term yearly chart showing stable upwards trend (Chart: TradingView)

Potential Resistance is the all time high at 4 559.67
Support Levels: 3 247.93 | 2 490.91
SMA20: 1 910.03

S&P 500 forecast: We expect to see the S&P 500 resume the long term uptrend. Only a drop below the 2020 low at 2191,86 would turn the positive long term chart to neutral or negative. But this outlook has a very low probability of only 30 %.

What is the current price of S&P 500 Index Futures?

The current price of S&P 500 Index Futures can be seen here.

About S&P 500

S&P 500 — short for Standard and Poor’s 500, is a United States stock market index based on the market capitalizations of the top 500 companies that have common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. With its headquarters in New York City and dating back to 1860, Standard and Poor’s has offices in 23 countries and maintains the SP 500 index. Over $1.25 trillion USD is indexed to Standard and Poor’s portfolio of indices, which includes the S&P 500. The S&P 500 index seeks to reflect the status of the whole stock market by tracking the return and volatility of the 500 most commonly held large cap company stocks on the NYSE, capturing approximately 80% of total market capitalization. The 500 companies comprising the SP500 span all major industries and are selected based on their market capitalization, liquidity, ability to be traded, as well as other factors. Additionally, the importance of the SP500 is highlighted by its use as an economic indicator of the health of the United States economy. (Source: TradingView)

*This price prediction is based on the data collected from various sources. This should not be considered as an investing parameter and user should do their own research before investing.

Do you think our predictions are accurate? What are your thoughts on the methods used to reach our conclusions? Let us know in the comments below.

8 thoughts on “S&P 500 Forecast 2021 – Long-term Prediction – Outlook”

  1. Hi Mr Kagel
    Thanks for the good presentation and forecast are we moving upward after the Sept 2021 fall or correction, it was obvious correction and halt and we see even first week of October 2021 drizzle and pull and push forward; so many factors where involved for such downward trend and markets have several eyes to see then it comes to public domain and then any analyst to present on the trend which we speak later.

    Now my question is it the maximum or all time high we have achieved that is S&P 500 4549.5 or it will settle at the end of this year Dec 2021 at S&P 500 4266.62

    Regard
    Abdur Rahman Ahmed

    Reply
    • Dear Mr. Abdur Rahman Ahmed,

      thank you very much for your interesting comment. Certainly, there are obvious things in the chart picture about which many analysts also have different opinions. Your question is aimed at direct targets, which I am happy to elaborate on.

      Currently, resistance still seems to prevail to the upside, the chart picture is clearly weakened with classic indicators like the SMA, from there I think we have seen the highs for the current year 2021. If the short-term downtrend structure continues, the 4260 you mentioned is the more likely price target.

      In sum, I don’t think there will be another strong downside move, more likely a trend reversal towards bearish should the SMA not be recovered sustainably. At the latest at the support around 3900, the bulls could take the helm again and continue the long-term upward trend.

      Best Regards,
      Christian Moehrer – Kagels-Trading

      Reply
  2. 4421 to 4451 are going to be very tough levels for the SP500 to crack. I have a cycle l identified that will hit between the 4th July to the 9th July. lf we are at the price levels at the time then l expect a massive decline.

    Reply
    • Hi Michael, that’s an interesting assessment, thanks. A correction could be quite appropriate after such a rise. The markets can always be good for a surprise.
      Regards, Karsten

      Reply
    • Hello Saeed, thank you for your question. Of course, it is always very difficult to make predictions for the stock market. But I think chances are good, that S&P 500 will not turn down under 3.300 till 2021 february. On the monthly chart we see an strong support between 3.300 and 3.400. Regards, Karsten

      Reply
  3. Hi — Great charts. Re your Yearly chart, were you able to draw that resistance line spanning back to the 1920’s on a log scale?

    Reply
    • Hi John, good to hear that you like my charts. The yearly chart of SP500 Cash Index has a log scale as you can see at the bottom in the right corner of the chart. Please let me know if you have more questions. My best, Karsten

      Reply

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